Lebanon went to the polls for the third time today (I think they like it!) in the districts of Mt. Lebanon and Bekaa. Usually I would do a really long post and analysis, given that most news stories fail at covering the event well, but An Nahar did such a good job that it will require little further elaborating.

Lebanon’s mother-of-all election battles is on, pitting Gen. Aoun and allied Syrian loyalists against a ’strategic pact’ of major opposition groupings comprising Walid Jumblat, Saad Hariri, Qornet Shahwan and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces.

The polls opened at 7 a.m. Beirut time for 11 hours of balloting in Mount Lebanon and the Bekaa for a total of 58 seats in the third round of the May-June elections to install a Lebanese parliament that is expected to introduce a new free-from-Syria regime.

The vote is expected to determine Aoun’s political size within his own Christian community. His last move on elections eve was to go to Bkirki and seek Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir’s blessing, assuring reporters the election process would be non-violent, the Beirut media noted.

At stake are 58 seats of the new legislature, which is made up of 128 members. About 1.2 million men and women over 21 are eligible to vote. Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in Mount Lebanon and 23 in the Bekaa.

Two seats have already been won uncontested in Mount Lebanon — Druze opposition leader Walid Jumblat and his senior-most aide Marwan Hamadeh. The remaining 33 seats form the arena of the make-or-break Aoun-Jumblat showdown.

Aoun’s main ally in the Baabda-Aley district is Talal Arslan, long an unflinching ally of Syria and President Lahoud’s Syrian-propped regime who heads the Lebanese Democratic Party. Jumblat, the acknowledged standard-bearer of Lebanon’s Druze sect, is backed by Hariri’s Tayyar Al Mustaqbal, Geagea’s LF and Hizbullah.

Beirut legislator Gebran Tueni quoted Geagea as pleading from his prison at the defense ministry compound in Yarze for a massive turnout of LF rank-and-file on Sunday’s polls, asserting the LF alliance with Jumblat, Saad Hariri and Cornet Shahwan was a ’strategic pact’ for building the new Lebanon.

The Associated Press noted that anti-Syrian forces need a strong showing in Sunday’s vote in the central and eastern regions — at least 45 seats for a majority — to win a firm grasp on the new parliament. But the campaign has led to some surprising alliances and left some races too close to call.

Aoun, who fought and lost a war against Syria in 1989, was one of Syria’s main Lebanese foes but recently broke with other opponents of Damascus and forged alliances with pro-Syrian politicians. The anti-Syrian opposition also teamed up with Hizbullah and Speaker Berri’s pro-Syrian Amal in some districts, The AP reported.

Aoun has concluded a pact with Michel Murr in the Metn constituency against an alliance of ex-President Amin Gemayel, presidential aspirant Nassib Lahoud and Michel Murr’s younger brother Gabriel Murr, whose MTV opposition station was closed down by the Lahoud regime largely for supporting Aoun’s return from exile and deploring the regime’s savage crackdown on Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement activists in Beirut.

The Army command warned its units against taking sides in Sunday’s balloting in Lebanon’s Christian heartland north and northeast of Beirut, the Druze hinterland southeast of the capital and east Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

Hizbullah is seen by the local media set to make another strong showing in the Bekaa’s Baalbek-Hermel district in an alliance with Berri’s Amal.

Alright, I can’t help myself.

As it’s already been said, Jumblatt and a top aide of his have already won their own seats uncontested in the Chouf district. Chances are, he is going to win the rest of his list in that district as well. The real surprises will come in the rest of Mt. Lebanon, where the seats are so hotly contested between the Jumblatt alliance and the Aoun alliance that the outcome is not yet predictable. There are some factors to look at, though, which can help us to determine it.

One is the ongoing alliance between the opposition and Hizb’allah. Recently, Nasrallah through his support again behind the Jumblatt list and made peace with Geagea’s Lebanese Forces, who Jumblatt is aligned with now (despite being foes in the civil war). Shiites make up about 15% of the population in this region so that could give Jumblatt an edge.

On the other hand, the Christian population and where their various loyalties lay will be the real wild card. In the last election, Christian voter turnout was very low due to a boycott, but despite the 2000 electoral law still being in place, emotions in this election are obviously running very high. General Aoun is for many Christians a hero of resistance against Syria, so if the Christian turnout is very high, his list may very well overpower Jumblatt’s. This will depend on how they have taken to his alliance with generally pro-Syria candidates, how convincing Aoun’s rhetoric about Jumblatt has been (given Jumblatt’s alliance with other old-Lebanon types), and the strength of the Christian Lebanese Forces voting for Jumblatt’s list. Overall, however, a large Christian turnout will probably benefit Aoun. UPDATE: Reportedly, turnout in some areas topped 50% by mid-day.

Elections are also being held in the Bekaa, but that is much more simple. The Hizb’allah-Amal alliance looks to to do well in the east, the Baalbek-Hermel where most of the seats are allocated to Shiites, whereas the anti-Syria opposition led by Hariri will do well elsewhere. The Western Bekaa and Zahle districts are mostly Sunni and Christian allocated, giving him a boost there.

Next week, voting will take place for the last time in the North, where the anti-Syria opposition looks to do very well despite the number of people contesting for each seat. It look to be quite a sweep actually. This means that the only election battle that is largely undecided is that in Mt. Lebanon, which will either totally cement the Hariri-Jumblatt opposition alliance in the parliament, or it will make it shaky by giving Aoun a steady political ground. The results should be announced tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Prior Reading:
In Lebanon, politics as usual?
Lebanon’s first round begins in Beirut.
Hizb’allah poised to sweep South Lebanon.

Voting has begun in Lebanon’s southern district.

Six of the South seats have already been taken by ticket members officially declared ‘winners unopposed’ in Sidon, provincial capital of the south, and in Jezzine, South Lebanon’s largest Christian city. Jezzine’s population was staying away from the polls to protest the concept of Christians being carried to parliament by overwhelming Muslim votes.

Polls opened at 7 a.m. (0400 GMT) in the region that sits on Israel’s northern rim and are scheduled to close 11 hours later. About 665,000 men and women are eligible to cast ballots, but the turnout is expected by the local media from 30% to 40%.

That’s some dry stuff, but this particular round of the Lebanon elections will have a profound impact on the direction of Lebanese politics in the near future. This is because Hizb’allah has made an electoral alliance with its usual arch-foe, the Amal Movement led by Speaker Berri. They compounded a list of candidates together and are expected to sweep every single seat in the district. There are 23 seats out of 128 total in this district, of which six have already been won unopposed. The list includes a candidate from the Baath party and the Syria Social Nationalist Party. As you may recall, the leader of the Amal Movement has backed Syria in the past, and Hizb’allah has done the same.

Even though this Amal-Hizb’allah alliance will sweep the south easily, there is still some controversy. Because the 2000 election law was not constitutionally amended on time due to Nabih Berri, the leader of Amal and speaker of parliament, hamstringing popular opposition attempts to do so. These efforts would have brought about smaller electoral districts, giving more precise representation of certain groups. Because this did not happen, the Christian minority in the predominantly Shiite south has been called to boycott by some local leaders because their Christian representatives are being chosen and elected by backers of Amal-Hizb’allah. In short, they want to choose and elect candidates who moreso represent their interests.

The other controversy is with Hizb’allah itself and how it will be disarmed. If a newly elected parliament insists that it disarm immediately, and it does not, then it will simply look like the puppet of Syria and Iran that it is. It’s strategy, therefore, is to transform its image from one of a regional player to that of a geniune, 100% Lebanese political party, something that has been reflected in Nasrallah’s rhetoric of late. The reason for keeping its weapons then? Resistence to Israel and the the liberation of Shebaa.

Nasrallah has made many political alliances to ensure that he doesn’t have to disarm immediately. Bahia Hariri was given an uncontested seat in the South in exchange for a Hizb’allah seat in Beirut. Walid Jumblatt, an opposition Druze leader, has pledged support and at a rally two weeks ago, Nasrallah announced that a deal was to be honored with Sunni opposition leader Saad Hariri to not disarm Hizb’allah. In return, Hizb’allah backed Hariri in Beirut last week, and will be backing him in west Bekaa next week. It will also back Jumblatt in some electoral districts of Mt. Lebanon next week. On the other hand, it has also backed Jumblatt’s rival General Aoun in other districts of Mt. Lebanon. Nasrallah will have a lot of friends from all over the spectrum of parliament, as he seems to have backed lists in the more contentious districts where the candidates are particularly in his favor. Aoun, for example, has teamed with with pro-Syria Talal Arslan despite being against Syria himself.

This means that Hizb’allah’s electoral power extends far beyond how many seats it holds explicitly. Nasrallah essentially wants to keep his political influence as long as possible, and part of that has always been having an armed militia under him. In order to do this, he can make deals with just about any politician who will support him, and because this is his only issue, can easily throw his votes toward all manners of people. This will gain him a lot of sympathetic politicians in his pocket, while Amal’s Berri is looking to be re-elected as the speaker of parliament again. In effect, this makes Hizb’allah the wild card of Lebanese politics.

Still, the main driving force in the new parliament will be the alliance between the anti-Syria Sunnis and Christians led by Saad Hariri who looks to be the potential premier. He and those around him insist that the issue of disarmament with be an internal issue, resolved by the Lebanese and the new government. As I said earlier, with a new parliament free of Syrian influence, Nasrallah will have to play his politicians wisely. If the parliament decides that Hizb’allah must disarm, and Nasrallah refuses, then he will look like a puppet and will immediately lose all credibility with the Lebanese. On the other hand, the potential of an armed militia that refuses to disarm is a dangerous prospect. The attempt will eventually come, but it will be likely set in the long-term and in a way that isn’t disruptive to the stability of Lebanon.

There are still two rounds of elections left. Next week will be the Bekaa and Mt. Lebanon, which will likely be the most exciting and contested round as Walid Jumblatt and General Aoun go head-to-head. The opposition is also looking to oust Syria-installed President Lahoud, and will start staging a massive sit in at the palace on Monday. This is also something that we will be watching with great interest as the rest of the elections unfold.

A columnist for the Lebanese publication An Nahar has been murdered in a car bombing, in which his car was rigged to explode upon ignition. Here is the report from Reporters Without Borders:

Reporters Without Borders secretary-general Robert M????nard, who is currently in Lebanon, voiced dismay at the murder of columnist Samir Kassir of the An-Nahar newspaper, who was killed when his car blew up this morning in Beirut.

“We are in a complete state of shock after Samir Kassir’s cowardly murder,” M????nard said. “We have lost a friend, and press freedom has lost a passionate defender. We share his family’s grief and anger, and we extend our heart-felt sympathy to the entire staff of An-Nahar.”

M????nard added : “The French authorities and the UN commission investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri should pay particular attention to this new act of terrorism. Those responsible for the murder, which targeted a great journalist, must be identified, arrested and punished. We promise to remain mobilised until justice has been done.”

Kassir was killed when his white Alfa Romeo car exploded at 10:45 a.m. (07:45 GMT) in the Christian neighbourhood of Achrafieh. A woman whose identity was not immediately know was injured by the blast.

Lebanese army soldiers rushed to the scene of the bombing. The prime minister and the French ambassador also went to the scene.

A writer and historian with both French and Lebanese citizenship, 45-year-old Kassir had been writing columns for the past 10 years for An-Nahar (”The Day” in Arabic), a moderate daily newspaper with a circulation of 55,000.

Well-known for his anti-Syrian positions and his criticism of the “Lebanese police state,” he had been harassed and threatened for years. He was also an active participant in the anti-Syrian protests in the spring of this year.

You can also read An Nahar’s English report here. I recall reading several of Kassir’s reports, and it is not often that one comes to know the name and style of a journalist so distinctly. What a disaster! This just goes to show that Syrian intelligence is still operating in the shadows of Lebanon, and that is exactly where the blame is going.

An Nahar’s General-Manager Gebran Tueni on Thursday held Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime “responsible from head to toe,” for the assassination of columnist Samir Kassir in Beirut.
“Bashar Assad should not be allowed to have a single intelligence operative lingering in Lebanon,” said Tueni, who was elected to Lebanon’s first free-from-Syria parliament in the Beirut polls on Sunday from the assassination scene.

“The Syrian regime is responsible from head to toe for this horrific terrorist crime. Lebanon’s opposition should promptly close ranks anew to have every Syrian intelligence cell left behind in Lebanon ruthlessly smashed,” Tueni said.

Tueni issued a particular plea to Gen. Aoun to return to the opposition fold for a fresh drive to “obliterate Syria’s secret presence” in Lebanon.

“It was Samir Kassir today, it may be Gebran Tueni tomorrow and God knows who else would follow. Syria’s terrorism has to be snuffed out once and for all,” Tueni said shaking in rage.

Walid Jumblat blamed Kassir’s assassination on the “remnants of Lebanese security services affiliated to Syria under the direct sponsorship of President Lahoud, whose ouster is a must to be able to establish a free, democratic and sovereign Lebanon.”

Saad Hariri released a statement calling Kassir’s murder a “terrorist crime” and vowing to spare no effort to track down the assassins with “the same zest that I am struggling to uncover my father’s killers.”

Of course, pro-Syria puppet President Lahoud is still in power. It may be worth continuing to pressure him as well, especially since he has said he would not step down even if parliament asked him to.

UPDATE: Where’s Linda Foley?

The first round of Lebanon’s first election free of Syrian interference since, well, before I was born has started. The next rounds will take place over the next three consecutive Sunday’s, ending on June 19. Candidates will be competing for 19 seats within three districts within the Beirut region. There are 240 polling stations open and 100 observers from the EU and the UN. But it is unlikely to be much of a competition, with Saad Hariri — the successor and son of Rafik Hariri — looking to sweep every seats with nine seats automatically won unopposed. For more information on the electoral alliances that have emerged, read my previous post.

Let the race begin:

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Voters trickled to the polls in Beirut on Sunday in a parliamentary election starting a month after Syrian troops quit Lebanon, with the son of assassinated former premier Rafik al-Hariri seeking a clean sweep.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati said early turnout was estimated at a modest 12 percent after four hours of voting in the mainly Sunni Muslim capital. “This (election) is a very important achievement and a proof of our commitment to our constitutional institutions,” he told a midday news conference.

Nine of the city’s 19 seats have already gone uncontested to nominees of Saad al-Hariri, a 35-year-old businessman thrust into politics by the Feb. 14 killing of his father.

Of course, the turnout will grow as the day goes on, but don’t expect anything like a million people flooding into the streets to vote. The reason that people are not turning out in extremely large numbers or so quickly is because the outcome is practically guaranteed to Hariri’s opposition list. While ten of the seats are still contested, those running against him are relatively weak candidates and only one or two of these mya even put up a fight. Due to the deals strucks between the Hariri-Jumblatt opposition alliance and the Amal-Hizb’allah Shiite alliance, and Hizb’allah’s urging Beirut’s Shiites to vote for Hariri’s lists, even these will likely be won fairly easily. So we can all just sit back and relax on this one; the real seat-edging fun won’t start until the North and Mt. Lebanon election battles.

It is very interesting to look at the practically predetermined regions and how the Hariri-Jumblatt and Amal-Hizb’allah alliances work. Besides Beirut, the South (and probably the Bekaa) will definitely go to the Shiite coalition of Amal and Hizb’allah. But looking at the electoral lists of Beirut and the South, you’ll notice that some swaps were made. In Beirut, a Hizb’allah candidate has been included on the Hariri list, while Bahia Hariri, the sister of the slain Rafik Hariri and who is running as an independent, has been included on Speaker Berri’s Amal list to make certain that she is elected. Other than that, Beirut is dominated by the opposition while the South is dominated by Hizb’allah and their partners.

With Beirut’s 19 seats going to the opposition, and the South’s 23 seats going to Amal-Hizb’allah, the composition of the new parliament will not be all that different in terms of the various parties involved. Speaker Berri, widely seen as the one who obstructed parliament from adopting a new electoral law, even has a high chance of remaining speaker. Given that the poltiical alliances have intertwined between almost every group in this election, it may be wise to reconsider just what “opposition” means in this case. Certainly, when Saad Hariri predicts that the opposition will sweep up to 90 seats in 128 seat legislature, it would be impossible the leave out the these other parties. What we are seeing here is not necessarily a sweep or a return to pro-Syria politics, but moreso the forming of a governing coalition based on the interests of Lebanon’s internal groups.

I’ll update this post if there are any more developments on the lines of Beirut’s elections. To thank you for your time, here is a picture of Miss Lebanon:

It had to happen sooner or later. The high expectations and aspirations of the Lebanese people are slowly degrading into a state of national melancholy. Undoubtedly, Lebanon will never be the same after March’s Cedar Revolution, but that won’t stop the country’s professional politicians from pulling as many strings as possible to stay in power. Actually, it is no wonder that a sense of disillusionment has set in as May 29 nears. Now that Syria has pulled out, the precedent for a unified anti-Syria opposition has been removed as each party forms alliances and election lists with formerly hostile rivals. All of this is occurring within the framework of the controversial 2000 election law which, due to political squabbling, was not changed in time for this electoral season. In order to understand much of the political maneuverings leading up to Sunday, it is very important to understand the basis of this law and the electoral system.

Elections will begin on Sunday, May 29, and will continue on the next three consecutive Sundays until June 19. The 2000 electoral law which was re-adopted utilizes the mouhafaza, a big electoral district, as compared to the qaza, a smaller electoral district. Below is an electoral map of the various mouhafazas:

(Courtesy: Ya Libnan)

Given that this law was created and adopted in a heavily Syria backed parliament several years ago, it naturally favors the old political order and has been the source of great controversy since its adoption. Maronite Christian Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has been one of the most outspoken critics of the law, saying — in the least fervish — that it sorely under represents the Christian sects of Lebanon. There are large Christian minorities in regions like South Lebanon and Beqaa, where pro-Syria parties like Hizb’allah, Baath, SSNP, and Amal are guaranteed to win. A newer electoral law, due to the smaller districts, would have given more accurate representation to such minorities. The complaint of the Patriarch is that due to the 2000 law, the seats allotted to the Christian sects will be chosen by Muslim voters instead of Christian ones.

Though he has been accused of stirring sectarianism, something which needs to hurriedly die on the vine, he does have a good point. I think Tony, from Across The Bay, does a fantastic job of describing how the supposedly sectarian system actually serves as a melting pot.

I’ve written this before, but let me say it again here. The categories of “Muslim” and “Christian” are all but meaningless politically in Lebanon. The system is not based on the representation of “Muslims” and “Christians.” This is legally wrong, and assumes that “Muslims” are a monolithic, coherent political cluster, and the same goes for Christians. In reality, each one is divided into several sects, which are in turn divided into subcategories (families, regions, political inclination, etc.). Those are the divisions that count and are reflected in parliament and in the elections. The corollary to that are the alliances in the election and in parliament, which create what’s known as “real representation.” In part, this was the complaint of some in the Christian circles, that some “Christian” candidates on certain lists were really the choice of the dominant political figure or alliance in that particular district, as opposed to being the choice of the Christian voters (or certain Christian parties). In that sense, that particular Christian candidate will for the most part be allied in parliament with the non-Christian figure/list on which he ran. Of course this fluctuates, as evident for instance with the MPs Bassem Yamout and Nasser Qandil who ran on the late Hariri’s list only to stab him in the back (and those are both “Muslim” MPs). Meanwhile, the “Christian” MPs on Hariri’s list (like the late MP Fleihan for instance) were loyal to his line, thus giving him, a Sunni Muslim, a larger “real representation” in parliament, even if they were Christians. The other corollary of course (a positive one) is that this way you get Christians voting for Muslim MPs and vice versa, thus rendering the entire notion of “sectarian bigotry” meaningless (cf. this article by Archbishop George Khodr, which touches on this issue, and this related article by Hazem Saghieh). It also makes Ciezadlo’s claim that “Muslim votes count less” even dumber than it already sounds. Is that clear? Apparently it wasn’t for Ms. Ciezadlo, and those who think like her.

The Cedar Revolution has helped melt these sects together to form a greater sense of national unity, again making these sectarian tensions increasingly irrelevant. Therefore, the problem is not necessarily the lack of representation for Christian sects, but the fact that the current law will allow many of the same players and parties to be re-elected despite the change in the national mood. Syria has left, and so the unifying issue is gone while the “subcategories” Tony speaks of remain to a large degree. This is how today’s bizarre election alliances are taking shape.

Michel Aoun’s return from exile in France and subsequent failure to conjure and alliance with Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt sparked the first real split in the opposition’s ideological direction. He is staunchly anti-Syria, however, has been relatively asinine by taking credit for Syria’s withdrawal because of his support for UNRES 1559. With regards to this, the devil is in the details. Resolution 1559 calls for the disarming of Hizb’allah, the international solution, but Jumblatt and Hariri’s parties support an “internal resolution” and insist that Syria’s pullout was based on the Taif Accord. Insofar, this is true, and it has been the foundation for the alliance between Hariri and Jumblatt with Hizb’allah and Amal. This strange alliance, as well as Hariri and Jumblatt’s willingness to participate under the old election law, are the other reasons for the split.

Up until a few days ago, Aoun was trying to negotiate between them over districts in Mt. Lebanon, as well as with supporters of Sitrada Geagea’s Lebanese Forces, but failed to do so. All that was left was to negotiate with pro-Syria Talal Arslan and Dory Chamoun for coordination on electoral lists. The latter fell through. He will put up a fight, but without ever being tested at the polls, and firing off at people all around, Aoun is in a bad position. He is most likely to run in Jbeil-Kesrwan, a mostly Christian district, where he will have better chances. Mt. Lebanon and the North are looking to be the most contested and interesting electoral battles to watch.

The alliance between Saad Hariri and Hizb’allah’s Nasrallah was born out of a supposed deal struck between Nasrallah and the late Rafik Hariri just a week before his death. This deal was based on the notion that Hariri would not call on Hizb’allah to disarm personally, and Saad has affirmed this. Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party is also part of this alliance, and Nasrallah has urged his mainly Shiite followers to vote for Hariri’s lists in Beirut and Jumblatt’s lists in Aley-Baabda. In fact, many of the seats have gone uncontested and the opposition is likely to sweep them all. But Hizb’allah has also struck a sweet deal with another Shiite bloc, Amal, in order to retain total dominance of the South and likely Beqaa. The Lebanon Daily Star has much more on the nitty gritty of the electoral battle coming up.

As you can see, it is no wonder that people are becoming disillusioned after the Cedar Revolution; not about its ideals but about the politicians that supposedly represent them. The same people that were hosting counter-demonstrations against one another on the streets of Beirut are now joining hands in order to ensure their political toes aren’t stepped on. They still want Syria out, they still want to form a national consensus of unity, and they still want Syria-backed President Lahoud ousted, but they want it all to happen without the political shift that acknowledges the shift of the national mindset. Because of this, it seems like Hizb’allah may be in a stronger political position than before March.

In the very least, there is at least one thing to remember which should evoke hope in this process. After this election, there will undoubtedly be a new election law. And most importantly, the Lebanese elections will be free of Syrian influence. This means that the politicians who will be running the country will no longer have to pander to the Syrian regime, but instead to the people of Lebanon. Because of this, I believe that despite the current disillusionment with the various parties and Hizb’allah’s arms problem, Lebanon has already well begun its trek toward a healthy political environment. To quote Mustapha from The Beirut Spring:

This is why it is no surprise that the leaders and the outside powers are proving responsible: Signs are everywhere: Jumblat has left an empty druze seat on his list so that he doesn????????t humiliate Talal Arslan. Ghattas Khoury sacrificed a guaranteed seat on the Hariri list for the ???????greater good???????. The Americans, French and Jumblat rushed to allay the patriarch????????s concerns by stressing his very important role. Jumblat, Hariri and Quornet Shahwan are making nothing but conciliatory noises in face of Aoun????????s aggressivness. Even Hezbollah is doing some soul searching and are removing from their lists people that are considered provocative. I also expect that the opposition might (just might) leave an empty maronite seat for Franjiyeh in the North.

Thomas Friedman said it best once:
In a Democracy, every day feels like a mess, but after a year, you’ll feel that a lot of progress has been made.

Like I said, I think the Lebanese are getting the right idea.

UPDATE: The first round of Lebanon’s election have started in Beirut.

With Lebanon’s elections near, sources at GeoStrategy Direct are saying that the recent flare up in violence, both the bombings in Beruit and the attacks on Israel in the south, have been a deliberate attempt by Iran and Hizbullah to derail the entire process. I have a rather longish post on my own blog focusing on Hizbullah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. It mostly deals with national security issues and provides links for those who want more background on Hizbullah; check out Spotlight on Hassan Nasrallah to read the whole thing.

These are the two paragraphs from my GeoStrategy Direct report excerpt most pertinent to the electoral process:

Last week, Hizbullah launched a series of rocket attacks on Israel representing the heaviest clash with Israel’s military so far this year. Nasrallah has also ordered Hizbullah to infiltrate Israel and abduct soldiers. He hopes for a massive Israeli retaliation that would throw Lebanon and the rest of the region into turmoil and either postpone elections indefinitely or force the country to rally around Hizbullah…

Israeli military sources said Hizbullah has been ordered to begin attacks against Israel’s northern border while intimidating and killing opposition Lebanese leaders, particularly Druze chief Walid Jumblatt. The effort would be coordinated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and elements within Syrian intelligence…

It looks like the Lebanese are perservering, but don’t be shocked if there is more violence over the next week.

After 15 years of exile in France since the end of the civil war, Michel Aoun has returned promising an end to “political feudalism.”

Gen. Aoun pledged to struggle for a new Lebanon free of rampant political feudalism upon his return Saturday from 14 years of exile in France.
“The era of unchecked political feudalism is over. I promise you change will come soon. It is inevitable,” said Aoun from a bullet proof podium set up at Downtown Beirut’s Martyrs Square.

Thunderous chants of ‘freedom, sovereignty, independence’ rang out from hundreds of thousands of welcomers celebrating the return of the general who snuck out from Beirut aboard a French submarine after the collapse of his liberation war against the Syrian army in 1991.

The crowds waved hundreds of life size portraits of Aoun amidst a sea of Lebanese flags as he climbed to the podium from a tribute he paid at the graveside of slain ex-premier Rafik Hariri.

“It was said when I left you 14 years ago that the world can stamp out anyone and force him to sign surrender,” Aoun orated. “Now I have returned to you with the world never able to crush me or stamp me out or force me to sign.”

He said he would begin as of Sunday laying down a proposed platform for the opposition with which to contest the May-June elections for the first parliament after the termination of Syria’s 3-decade domination of Lebanon.

This follows parliament clearing him of all charges against him. The return of Aoun has been on of the main demands of the opposition. and this fulfills it. The last main demand of the opposition, besides free elections according to a new law and Syria’s withdrawal, has been the release of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. Between this, the adoption of the 2000 elections law (which I will have an in-depth post on tomorrow), and another bombing in a Christian district, parliament has been once again thrown into disarray with just about everyone calling for President Lahoud’s resignation.

Prominent Lebanese opposition lawmakers have demanded President Emile Lahoud’s resignation, with at least one directly blaming him for an overnight bombing in a Christian area north of Beirut that injured 24 people.

The calls followed a parliamentary session during which Lahoud, in a message read by the speaker, urged lawmakers to draw up an election law acceptable to all Lebanon’s disparate factions for polls that are supposed to start on 29 May.

Opposition lawmakers, led by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, accused Lahoud of presiding over security agencies that they blamed for Friday night’s bombing in the Christian port city Junyah, 15km north of Beirut.
…
Jumblatt said he had warned Christian opposition partners to force Lahoud, a Christian, to resign, but his call had been previously rejected. “He (Lahoud) stayed and now he is playing with us by outbidding on sectarian issues and by bombs,” Jumblatt alleged.

Opposition lawmakers from across Lebanon’s religious divides backed Jumblat’s call.

“We consider him (Jumblatt) a principal partner in the building of a new state, which should be bringing down Emile Lahoud after the parliamentary elections because he is the head of the security regime,” said Christian lawmaker Nayla Muawad, widow of President Rene Muawad who was slain in 1989.

Shia Muslim opposition lawmaker Basim Sabai said Lahoud
“must bear the political and moral responsibility” for Lebanon’s crisis. Walid Eido, a Sunni Muslim opposition legislator, also said the president should resign and face trial.

Here is another account of what exactly happened.

Parliament failed in a stormy session Saturday to write a new law to govern the May-June elections and to vote on a draft bill to amnesty Lebanese Forces Commander Samir Geagea.

The session was called by Speaker Berri to act on an 11th hour letter from President Lahoud to hold the elections based on a law ‘acceptable to all.’

The parliament near unanimously rejected Lahoud’s message and held him directly responsible for sabotaging the promulgation of a new law in time for fair elections for the first legislature that would be free of Syrian control.

Many lawmakers demanded that Lahoud be impeached outright. Druze leader Walid Jumblat, spearhead of the opposition drive to oust Syria, said “there is an imperative need to oust the president and the election by parliament of a new head of state to steer Lebanon out of its current crisis.”
…
Even one of the staunchest loyalists of Syria, former Vice Speaker Elie Firizly, shouted during the debate that a committee representing all blocs in parliament should go to the Baabda Palace and demand from the president to resign.

Several members of Hariri’s bloc in parliament were also exceptionally outspoken in favor of dethroning Lahoud, demanding that he be tried before the nation’s Higher Constitutional Council for lurching Lebanon from one crisis into another.

As the debate was about to draw to a close, a shouting match broke out between opposition legislator Fares Boueiz and Berri’s supporters in parliament.

Local TV stations said the quarrel was about to develop into a fist fight when Berri suddenly gaveled an indefinite adjournment, blocking a vote on Geagea’s parole and the promulgation of a new electoral law.

Opposition legislators then announced that they were staging an open-ended sit-in at parliament hall demanding that Berri returns to begin a new session devoted for paroling Geagea.

The termination of the session meant the elections would be held under the existing law which was drawn up in 2000 under Syria’s tutelage.

As the article notes, the president cannot be impeached by parliament. I’m not sure of the chances that he’ll be tried at the constitutional court, but given that the presidential elections are far off and nobody wants him, everything is possible. This is no doubt lined up with Michel Aoun’s return, who is seen as very likely to be a reconciliation president of sorts. Lahoud’s potential ousting could make this election season all the more interesting, even with all the drama over the election law.

Michael Totten is back from Lebanon and posting, he says “by popular demand,” a very nice collection of protest babe pictures. I have read posts on some of the less, uh, optimistic websites that state that the whole protest babe thing is bogus because none of those women were Muslim. Not so, says Michael:

If any of you think only the Christian women of Lebanon walk around without their own portable tents, forget that. It????????s isn????????t even close to true. My hotel was on the Muslim side of Beirut and I saw almost as many modern-looking women on that side of the city as I saw in the Christian areas. Even Hezbollah doesn????????t mandate the veil or the hijab.

Two Hezbollah groupies invited me to have coffee with them downtown. We argued rather passionately about politics, as you can imagine, but they were good sports about it. They gave me a Cuban cigar as I went on my way, but first one of them asked me: ???????So, whaddaya think of our women, eh???????? and elbowed me good-naturedly in the ribs. Lebanon ain????????t Saudi.

Gotta love it. Go on over and welcome Michael back. And check out the babes.

Enjoy, Robert.

Michael Totten declared victory from the tent city earlier today, noting that the elections have been officially confirmed for May 29. Read his entire post, as it is very thought provoking.

The elections are to be held a month from now in four parts, 0n May 29, June 5, June 12 and June 19. They couldn’t agree on new election rules, so they had to constitutionally settle for the 2000 law. Not to much dismay, of course, as this is easily another big victory for the revolution. Under the 2000 law, districts remain much smaller and in single mandate status, so the opposition is going to be able to take an incredible amount of seats in a month’s time.

Constitutionally, the Lebanese electoral law must be passed a month before the elections are to take place. Which means they have have three days left– April 29th. New and short-living Premier Mikati wants to hold the election over a period of three days.

Parliament on Tuesday opened a nationally televised debate of a policy statement by Premier Mikati’s newly formed government, which is seeking a vote of confidence on a basis that the elections would be held in three stages on May 26, 29 and 31.

The prime minister has made it plain that he was unshakably determined to hold the elections within the last week of May irrespective of which law the parliament would endorse for the first elections after Syria’s evacuation of Lebanon.

One of the draft electoral laws that would favor the pro-Syrians, however, would take quite a long time to implement.

The second option, which both Hizbullah and Amal have called for, is the designation of an electoral law of proportional representation in larger districts known as mohafazat or governorates. (For an example of how to calculate the appointment of seats in a proportional representation system, see box on left).

But such a system has never existed in Lebanon and would require a thorough count of the country’s population to accurately divide the electoral districts, particularly considering the sectarian requirements for the 128 seats in Parliament.

According to the 1989 Taif Accord, Parliament’s 128 seats must be split 50-50 between Christians and Muslims, with each half required to include representation of the country’s 18 recognized confessions.

Considering the monumental undertaking this system would entail, observers have said calls for its implementation can only serve to delay polls.

If the system is implemented in Lebanon, it is expected to be designed in a way that respects the sectarian division of parliamentary seats. Several suggestions have been put forward by electoral experts on how to implement the system, but none has yet been approved.

Proportional representation asks voters to elect one entire list of candidates as opposed to individual names. It could be applied on a national level drawing the whole country as a single electoral district or in large regions known as governorates.

The third option is a possible compromise between the two previous electoral systems that some observers have said Mikati may suggest. It considers the implementation of a mixed system, including both majority and proportional representation.

This system was first implemented in Germany and stipulates the election of half of Parliament based on a majority system and the other half based on proportional representation.

Voters would simultaneously elect a candidate that represents their electoral district and a list that represents their political affiliations.

But this system has also never been implemented in Lebanon and would require preparations to explain it to voters and candidates. Therefore, it could also be seen as a means to delay elections.

Another complication for Mikati’s new Cabinet is the fact there is no clear-cut preference for an electoral law among the loyalists as a group or among the opposition.

I’ve written about the possibilities concerning the electoral law at length so you may want to check that out. Keeping the districts as they are now, however, would best suit the opposition.

The United Nations flew into Beirut Sunday night to make sure that they’re “really gone.” Let’s see how well they can do that.

But UN jabs aside, this is actually really good news, with some corrupt pro-Syria Lebanese security heads resigning as well.

SYRIAN troops complete their withdrawal from Lebanon today, ending almost 30 years of occupation and paving the way for the country????????s first free and fair elections in a generation.

Positions were bulldozed and checkpoints dismantled as the last tanks and artillery guns were removed for the short trip home. Lorries filled with troops and equipment belched black diesel smoke as they ground up the hills of the eastern Bekaa. Green military buses festooned with Syrian flags and portraits of President Assad ferried soldiers across the border.

A monument dedicated to Syrian soldiers who died in Lebanon????????s wars will be unveiled at a ceremony this morning in the Bekaa Valley town of Rayak formally marking an end to Syria????????s military presence.

With almost all Syrian troops gone from Lebanon, Rustom Ghazale, the head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, the mukhabarat, has vowed to be the last soldier to leave. Once his vehicle crosses the border at Masnaa today, the military road connecting the two countries will be closed.

Jamil Sayyed, Lebanon????????s feared security chief and a close ally of Damascus, announced his resignation yesterday. Raymond Azar, chief of Lebanese military intelligence, was reported to have fled to France. The security chiefs stand accused of involvement in the murder of Rafik Hariri, a former Lebanese Prime Minister, whose death heaped pressure on Syria to withdraw.

A Syrian army officer, a camera on his shoulder, stood by the main road at Masnaa filming each vehicle as it passed, capturing for posterity what many Syrians regard as a humiliating retreat. ???????I am sorry to leave like this because the Syrian and Lebanese people are brothers,??????? the officer said. ???????We would have liked to stay.???????

But in the nearby ethnic Armenian town of Anjar, headquarters since 1976 of Syria????????s military intelligence, there was barely disguised delight. ???????We are very happy to see them go,??????? Rafi Tamorian, 25, said. ???????They might be our brothers, but they have been treading on our hearts for too long.???????

Oh, and unrelated…

Talk about good timing. The ten minute interview was done in the White House and broadcast directly to Lebanon.

President Bush has insisted anew that Syria should “get out completely” from Lebanon and let the Lebanese people decide their own future in internationally monitored elections on schedule and free from external influence or intimidation.

Bush pledged, then, to drum up global monetary assistance to help “this country back on its feet.”

In a rare direct address to the Arab world, Bush also said in an interview broadcast by Beirut’s LBCI television network from the White House he wanted the Assad regime to shut down Hizbullah’s office in Syria, asserting the Party of God should disarm in Lebanon.

“The United States can join with the rest of the world, like we’ve done, and say to Syria, get out — not only get out with your military forces, but get out with your intelligence services, too; get completely out of Lebanon, so Lebanon can be free and the people can be free,” Bush said in the 10-minute interview.

The Syrian withdrawal should include people who “have been embedded in parts of government” to allow Lebanese — “not another government, not agents of another government” –to decide the country’s fate, he said.

Bush’s interview, with Arabic subtitles, was aired late Tuesday. A transcript was provided by the White House press office. It grabbed page-one banner-lines in the Beirut press on Wednesday.

The election “ought to be as scheduled. And the elections need to be free and fair, without interference,” Bush said, adding that international monitors should oversee the balloting.

Bush said the Lebanese “are tired of living under a government which, in essence, was a foreign occupation.” Syria’s military presence, the key to its domination of the country, began in 1976 when Syrian forces entered the country to stop a civil war that lasted another 14 years.

The demands for Syria to leave Lebanon sharply rose after the Feb. 14 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri, which sparked mass anti-Syrian protests across Lebanon.

Bush declared U.S. support for this debt-ridden country, promising to help Lebanon’s “new democracy succeed” by working closely with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other international organizations as well as the European Union “to help this country get back on its feet after occupation.”

Read the rest here.

Finally:

Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati announced he has succeeded in forming a new government, after a month and a half of political wrangling by pro-Syrian and opposition politicians.

Lebanon’s fledgling Prime Minister Najib Mikati made the eagerly-waited announcement that he had put together a new government at the presidential palace.

The government, with those named today, he insisted, will be a short-term administration, destined to supervise parliamentary elections, quickly, and within the constitutional time frame, “God willing,” as he put it.

Mr. Mikati denied that there had been a tug-of-war between Lebanon’s opposition movement and pro-Syrian politicians, in choosing his ministers.

Just 14 ministers make up the new government, which has representatives from Lebanon’s major religious communities. The previous government of out-going Prime Minister Omar Karami was nearly double its size, with more than 30 ministers.

The Beirut press says opposition and pro-Syrian leaders had compromised in order to avoid further political and economic turmoil.

Christian opposition leader Dory Chamoun expressed some displeasure, noting that the new government was made up completely of loyalist, or pro-Syrian politicians:

“It is mostly a loyalist composition, in other words, most of the guys inside are all of the loyalist camp, said Mr. Chamoun. ???????None of them are from the opposition.”

Despite some reservations, Mr. Chamoun added that the opposition would be satisfied if the government fulfilled its obligations to hold parliamentary elections this May.

Here is a list of the new ministers. And the quote of the day:

“As I said, it does not make much difference how you scratch your ear, as long as you scratch it,” he added.

Or any other place, for that matter. Actually, Mustapha doesn’t think badly of the new PM who has been labeled “pro-Syria” and has some interesting thoughts on him.

When Najib Mikati first appeared in the Tripoli political scene back in 2000, everyone knew that this billionaire businessman-turned-politician has friends in high places. His business interests with the Assad family were no secret. This gave him a sort of halo of invincibility that only added Soprano-style mystery to his soft-spoken style.

Yet to classify him as pro Syrian would be unfair. We shouldn’t forget that even Mr. Hariri was at one point aligned with the Syrians, because, let’s face it, they were the gate keepers.

A lot of Tripolitanians saw in Mr. Mikati a much better alternative than the vulgar Omar Karami, who was so upset at Mr. Mikati’s “Trespassing” into his “territory” that he actually named him: “wazir el zift”, translated “Minister of Asphalt” (lost in translation: it has a much nicer derogatory bang in Arabic).

Recently, he has been doing and saying all the right things: He was the first to suggest that the airport be named after the Late Hariri , and after being chosen as Prime minister, he stressed that the elections should be held on time and that for credibility, he won’t be a candidate. He even said that he will sack the security officials and that he is bent on letting the international investigation into Hariri’s murder take its full course.
Perhaps most significantly, he made the symbolic move of visiting Hariri’s grave right after being named prime minister.

Even in terms of style, he seems to have that quality we all liked in the late Hariri: He is never angry in public and never uses demagogy. He’s always calm, serene and he chooses his words carefully. A real manager.

Give this man a chance; he deserves it.

They have also started a series covering Lebanon election issues. Here are parts one and two.

In the last roundup I noted that a big controversy was going to surround the electoral proposals for district forming. From my understanding, the Syrian loyalist camp is looking to enlarge the voting districts, called a Mohafaza, in order to defeat pro-opposition candidates from smaller districts called Qazas. Also, currently, the Qazas are based on single-mandate voting, so whoever wins the largest number of votes, even out of ten candidates, would win the seat. This means that opposition candidates would have a great advantage this time around. Well, Lahoud is looking to change that. He has been trying to also make the electoral districts proportional, which would highly favor pro-Syrian loyalist candidates who would otherwise completely lose out in elections held under the current laws. Combine these two things, and potentially they could hold out.

Michael Totten notes that even though half of Lebanon’s population is in Beirut, a greater number of electoral districts lay outside its influence.

A Lebanese-American blogger based in New York City who calls herself Ms. Levantine identifies Lebanon’s principal internal problem precisely:

“Lebanon????????s tragedy is that instead of creating The Greater Beirut, we came up with The Greater Mount Lebanon…Lebanon????????s tragedy was that the city was never able to impose its political role, and that instead, the old rivalries of the mountain took over the life of the country. Those rivalries were not condusive to the creation of a modern state, and we ended up with a fragmented country where local chieftains tried to protect their power with the help of a wide array of foreign countries…we have to shift the balance of power from the countryside to the city.”

Even though roughly half of Lebanon’s people live in or around Beirut, most of the voting districts are out in the countryside. If your grandfather is from Shweir, you must go to Shweir and vote for a rural sectarian candidate. Your representative in parliament will not be, cannot be, an urban cosmopolitan even if you’re an urban cosmopolitan yourself.

One of the benefits of Lebanon’s miniscule size is that every last inch of it is close to the city. Anyone in the villages can easily visit Beirut. And anyone in Beirut can visit the villages.

Until the districting laws are changed, Beirut will not be able to impose its political role on the countryside. But people who live in the city can project their culture and their values into the villages. That’s exactly what the tent-city protesters are going to do every day for the next week.

That’s an interesting point. Perhaps, if the electoral laws are changed to create bigger districts that include more of the city, while preserving single-mandate election, then forming a more liberal Lebanon could be achieved. If not, in any case, it is impressive to see the great determination shown by the protestors to get the word out.

It is also encouraging, though, that the new PM has promised that elections will be held on the constitutional deadline. Making sure of this and that they are free, fair, and transparent will be the main victory in all of this.

Pro-Syrian businessman Najib Mikati was appointed prime minister after the resignation (how many is that?) of Omar Karami. At Spirit of America, Mike Totten has a short but pointed interview with student opposition leader Nabil Abou-Charraf. Charraf contends that the latest Karami resignation is a ploy by the government to scuttle the upcoming elections. He says that to the opposition the elections are everything, the government, nothing.

For his part, Mikati is being described as a moderate. But he is a moderate only in comparison to his rival Abdel-Rahim Mrab.

He said: “We must take advantage of this unity and of the opposition’s brave decision to participate in the consultations.”

He also announced that parliamentary consultations to form a Cabinet would start this afternoon. But opposition MP Mosbah Ahdab said the opposition will not be part of the Cabinet.

The anti-Syrian opposition opted for Mikati, disregarding the fact that he is a close Syrian ally, in an attempt to weaken Mrad, who is staunchly pro-Syrian and viewed as a “provocative” candidate.

Mikati, a former public works and transport minister has also pledged to hold the elections on time, a major demand of the opposition and the international community. The opposition has also said Mikati promised not to run for elections, and to dismiss pro-Syrian security chiefs, which it accused of having facilitated Hariri’s murder.

Only three opposition MPs: Butros Harb, Nayla Mouawad and Mosbah Ahdab refrained from giving a name.

Harb and Mouawad are both close personal friends of Karami, a traditional rival of Mikati, while Ahdab is known to be at odds with Mikati.

Ä…Å

Hizbullah’s 12-MP parliamentary bloc and Deputy Speaker Michel Murr’s bloc of four, said they chose a name, but refrained from divulging it. “We left the name with President Lahoud,” said Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad.

But it is also understood Hizbullah named Mrad because he pledged to revoke the current electoral draft law and submit a new one, less favorable to the opposition, combining large constituencies with a proportional system.

Mikati is said to have been in contact with Walid Jumblatt and the family of Rafik Hariri leading up to his appointment. Syria had backed Mrab and is smarting from the defeat. But Assad’s government isn’t giving up so easily.

But Syrian President Bashar Assad declared in his March speech that the military pullout would not bring an end to Syria’s long-standing role in Lebanon, which is based on historic and geographic relations.

Damascus’ rigid policy has so far remained in place and was evident in its support of the naming of outgoing Lebanese Defense Minister Abdel-Rahim Mrad as Lebanon’s new prime minister. Syrian officials contacted their Lebanese allies, asking them to name him in parliamentary consultations.

According to some of Damascus’ closest allies, the fact that Syria chose Mrad instead of Tripoli MP Najib Mikati, another close ally, is due to Mikati’s willingness to abide by some of the opposition’s demands.

Those allies said Damascus was not embarrassed by its preference for Mrad but rather it chose the outgoing defense minister because its policy is to opt for confrontation when under pressure. Damascus does not want to fulfill the opposition’s demands under pressure, especially those related to the dismissal of security chiefs, who Mikati has said he will give an administrative vacation if he succeeds in forming the new Cabinet.

Mrab was a virulent opponent to Hariri and can hardly have expected the opposition to accept him. Hariri may have become more “powerful” in death than in life and his family exerts considerable influence in Lebanese politics. Mikati has promised to form a government quickly and hold to the date for the May elections. It will be telling how he handles the next 15 days. That’s how long he has to call for elections. The opposition is well organized and the people are ready, willing and able to keep the government to it promises.

I’ve almost lost count of how many times this guy has quit, threatened to quit, and cried in a corner simply because he was on the wrong side of history. Look like this is the last time.

Premier-Designate Omar Karami has resigned the task of forming Lebanon’s new government Wednesday. He made the announcement at a news conference after 7 weeks of futile attempts to put together a viable cabinet lineup. Karami blamed his failure on ‘impossible conditions to meet’ that were put forward by his allies of the Ein El-Tineh coalition of Syria’s loyalists in Lebanon.

Karami’s move leaves Lebanon under the jurisdiction of his caretaker government which resigned in the aftermath of ex-Premier Hariri’s assassination Feb. 14.

Lebanon’s prominent jurists have said a caretaking government has the power to invite the Lebanese to the polls and said officials of such a cabinet would risk being tried before the nation’s constitutional council if they fail to make the call for elections before its May 18 constitutional deadline.

Their verdict overruled a contention by Speaker Berri that a caretaker cabinet can not make the call to the polls.

Karami had also said he was quitting Berri’s Ein El-Tineh coalition, which deals a staggering blow to the camp of Syria’s loyalists.

People are very suspicious of everything that the government is doing, thinking that they are scheming to delay the May elections.

Their discord was ostensibly attributed to the insistence of various loyalist factions within Berri’s Syrian-sponsored Ein El-Tineh’s coalition on snatching the biggest possible portion of spoils of a cabinet supposed to quit within two months if the elections are held on deadline in May.

The main listed spoils gladiators were Suleiman Franjieh, who demanded the health ministry for himself and the environment portfolio for ally Sayed Akl, Druze leader Talal Arslan who refused to retain the ministry of the displaced which has no funds, and Syrian Social Nationalist Party’s Asaad Hardan.

Another contributing factor to the crisis is the clash between Lahoud and Berri over the new electoral law. The president wants it based on the district-as-constituency system and Berri is insisting on proportionality with the province as constituency, according to An Nahar.

“Allies’ Preconditions Thwart Troika Accord on New Government,” roared an 8-column banner-line across An Nahar’s front-page Monday. “What’s happening is perilous in raising the specter of postponing the elections on one count and plunging the country in an economic crisis graver than any other political consideration,” An Nahar analyzed.

Slain ex-Premier Hariri’s Al Mustaqbal newspaper charged the current regime of having invented a new hitch to delay the formation of the new government and create the alibi for calling off the May elections.

The State Department had this to respond:

“The Syrians need to withdraw completely military and intelligence presence,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said in a Washington briefing Tuesday. “But more important, it’s part of the process of letting the Lebanese decide their own future???????. The Lebanese need to organize elections on time and allow the people to express their views.”

Just keep remembering, the test of any revolution is if free and fair elections are held in a reasonable amount of time.

As I begin writing this, it is 4:40am, and that makes me feel like starting out with the most ironic item of them day. Lebanon saves Syria from a car bomb. Yes, you heard that right.

A truck loaded with 40 kilograms of explosives was seized overnight while on its way toward the Syrian border, outgoing state minister Albert Mansur said yesterday. ???????The truck loaded with explosives was heading to Syria, according to sources of the investigation,??????? Mansur said on LBCI television. Police said security forces had seized a Hyundai truck in the northeastern district of Hermel, a few kilometers from Syria. They said the explosives were hidden under carts of vegetables. The driver, identified as Muwafaq Ibrahim, from the village of Hawsh Hala near the main eastern city of Zahleh, was arrested, they said.

Lebanese security forces raided houses in the border village of Al-Qaa, in the eastern Bekaa Valley, looking for evidence. It was not clear whether the two detained men had any links to four bombings that have rocked Christian suburbs of Beirut over the past three weeks, raising fears of a slide back into Lebanon????????s 1975-1990 civil war. In the latest sign of rising tensions, a hand grenade was lobbed down a street in the Christian mountain village of Duhur Al-Shweir earlier on Friday night, but no one was wounded and no property damaged, security sources said.

It isn’t so much of a coincidence that all of these explosives are coming out of the Bekaa Valley.

On the way back from Pope John Paul II’s funeral, Prime Minister Karami — the one who resigned and then was reappointed, pledged to resign again, but didn’t — said on the plane that he would form the new government on Monday. But it looks like he has hit a snag and once again failed to do so.

Last-minute hitches, among them a clash with President Lahoud, have forced Premier-Designate Omar Karami to cancel the scheduled announcement of Lebanon’s new government on Monday, getting the nation’s post-Hariri political crisis back to square one, An Nahar reported.
The surprise obstacles mark a serious rift within the ranks of Syria’s loyalists at a time the Syrian army is hurriedly withdrawing from Lebanon, terminating a 28-year hegemony under massive international pressure.

The hitches revolved basically around the new electoral law. They were compounded by sudden declarations from Vice Speaker Elias Murr and outgoing cabinet ministers Elie Firizly and Elias Skaff that they would not join the new government.

“Unless an 11th hour rescue happens, the government crisis is back to square one,” An Nahar said, citing sudden announcements by three potential cabinet ministers refusing to serve in the new cabinet as compounding the crisis.

Efforts to persuade outgoing Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh, Syria’s staunch Maronite ally, to reverse his sworn rejection to take the same post in the new government “have hit a dead-end,” An Nahar reported.

Sources close to Franjieh told An Nahar he would be willing to retain the interior portfolio in the new government only if the spring elections are held under the electoral law he had tabled before parliament before the resignation of the outgoing cabinet.

That draft, which makes Lebanon’s 26 districts as electoral constituencies, “satisfies a great many Lebanese, especially Christians led by the Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir,” the sources told An Nahar.

President Lahoud has taken an almost identical stance to that of Franjieh’s. Karami called Lahoud by telephone Sunday night to get his approval for the announcement at 11 a.m. Monday of a cabinet that would retrieve the district-based electoral law from parliament and put forward, instead, a new draft based on proportional representation with each of Lebanon’s six provinces as an electoral constituency.

But President Lahoud said he disapproved of proportionality and of the province as constituency, insisting on retaining the district as the base of the new law. Karami said he is committed to the Ein El Tineh decision to change the draft law, according to An Nahar’s account.

“At this point, Lahoud said he had pledged to Patriarch Sfeir to make the district the base of the new law and the council of ministers had approved the draft and he would not be able to abandon it,” An Nahar narrated. “Karami said their disagreement makes him incapable of forming the new government.”

This whole idea of proportionality seems dreamed up by Syrians loyalists, as it would give them much more representation than they would get under the current system when new elections are held. The Patriarch had had something to say about that.

Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has counseled President Lahoud to form a concise government of four or six members to oversee the legislative elections on schedule in spring and then resign, leaving the newly elected parliament to decide whether or not to fire the president, An Nahar reported on Saturday.
The Patriarch told Lebanese reporters covering Pope John Paul II’s funeral in the Vatican that he made his views clear to Lahoud at a 45-minute tete-a-tete they held after history’s biggest-ever funeral was over.

“We have stressed that the conduct of the elections must come first and a new government be formed in light of the outcome at the polls,” Sfeir said. “Afterwards, the new parliament will decide whether or not to fire the president???????We have always advocated obedience to the constitution.”

The Patriarch said he also objected to the concept of Syria’s loyalists that the elections be held under a system of proportional representation with the province as the electoral constituency.

“The small constituency ensures the correct representation, proportionality is not understandable,” the Patriarch said.

Lahoud made no comment to reporters after the meeting and it remains to be seen whether he would respond favorably to the Patriarch’s views.

Speaker Berri and Premier-designate Karami are the main advocates of electoral proportionality and both are reportedly bent on having the cabinet made up of 30 ministers.

Imagine that. A Syrian puppet president in favor of this? No way.

Opposition leader Walid Jumblatt has called for elections to be held on time, as Karami has insisted they be delayed anywhere between three to six months. He is also striking a conciliatory tone with Hizb’allah, something momentarily necessary for keeping the peace and proceeding toward the elections.

BEIRUT, April 10 (Xinhuanet) — Lebanese Druze opposition leader Walid Jumblatt here Sunday rejected a delay in upcoming elections and urged for unity of the opposition factions to win the elections.

Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, told a press conference that “of course we insist on elections on schedule,” calling on the opposition to meet and come up with a programme.

“We should have a clear and ambitious answer to what’s next,” he said, predicting an opposition win regardless of the shape of the electoral law.

He also expressed his disagreement with the UN resolution 1559in what concerns Lebanon’s Hezbollah (Party of God) and called on the opposition to have a unified vision of means to hold dialogue with Hezbollah.

On the other hand, Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami is expected to unveil a long-awaited new government on Monday to lead the country into the election, saying the new government will draw up a draft law organizing polls.

Work on the draft is expected to take weeks, forcing a delay in the polls, political sources say, adding the opposition wants elections as soon as possible to capitalize on public sympathy after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.Pro-government loyalists want a delay of the elections in the hope that public fury will die down and divisions will appear among the ranks of a disparate opposition.

In the meantime, Hizb’allah has laid out its demands for discussions on disarmament.

BEIRUT - Hezbollah would be prepared to discuss the fate of its armed wing if Israel withdrew from a disputed border area, the Lebanese guerrilla group’s deputy leader said in a British newspaper interview on Friday.

Sheikh Naim Kassem said one alternative could involve Hezbollah’s fighters becoming a kind of “reservist army” working with Lebanese authorities, the Financial Times reported.

The United States and United Nations have called for Hezbollah to be disarmed.

Kassem said no talks could take place while Israel remained in the Shaba Farms area.

Lebanon says Shaba Farms is Lebanese land occupied by Israel, while the UN describes it as Israeli-occupied Syrian territory.

“We will discuss (Hezbollah’s) arms after Shaba, but on condition that a credible alternative is found to protect Lebanon,” Kassem told the Financial Times.

“A reservist army doesn’t mean the resistance becomes part of the army, but it is a formula of coordination with the army. It is resistance by another name,” he said.

Regardless of what Hizb’allah says in terms of its negotiations, the opposition seems to have the upper hand here. Jumblatt effectively neutralized their biggest demand of staying armed by saying that they should not be forced to by outside pressure (a la resolution 1559). Should Hizb’allah reacts to that in a protestive manner, it serves to delegitimize it as a Lebanese political organization holding the interests of the people at heart. If free elections are held on time and the opposition does have a sweeping victory, Hizb’allah can simply be voted to disarm. If it does not comply, then it will lose tremendous favor in the public’s eyes for not complying with the legitimate legislature. All in all, Hizb’allah will have to become a purely political organization integrated into parliament or risk losing a lot of its influence. Tony has a long post on Hizb’allah, with regards to this passage:

ick Blanford, who follows Hizbullah closely (and has talked with Raad, among others), told me of this possibility several weeks ago, after Hariri’s assassination. In fact, Qornet Shehwan member Nassib Lahoud proposed to hold the resistance as a “strategic reserve” until peace is concluded with Israel. Nick figured that this will be adopted as a face-saving compromise. Nick also thought that the Shebaa Farms campaign would cease (not that there’s much of a campaign anyway) and the Lebanese army would deploy to the border. Then, Nick wrote, “perhaps the Islamic Resistance would become some sort of frontier protection force under the joint command of the army and Hizbullah.” Perhaps, if that does take place and the army is in control (and Hizbullah is coopted and neutralized), it will provide an incentive for the Israelis to consider withdrawing from Shebaa (similarly to what they’re doing in the West Bank).

Based on Raad’s statements, it seems that all of the points Nick made are being seriously considered as a face-saving compromise. In the end, Hizbullah has little choice when the majority of the Lebanese are no longer comfortable with it retaining its arms indefinitely and acting out on its own. Hizbullah understands that, I’m sure, and their ultimate goal is survival. Right now they feel threatened, and they must realize that the Lebanese are their only real safety net.

The “Free Geagea” bill has so far gained a lot of momentum, with thirty legislators having already sponsored it.

Sitrida Geagea was reported Sunday to have planned a visit to Speaker Berri at his offices in Parliament sometime this week to lodge with him a draft bill signed by 30 legislators to amend the 1992 post-civil war amnesty law in order to get her husband Samir Geagea out of prison before the spring elections.
Several Beirut radio and TV networks said Mrs. Geagea’s move would set in motion the legislative machinations to free the Lebanese Forces commander from nearly 11 years in jail at the defense Ministry compound in Yarze.

Lebanon’s opposition front, which comprises more than 45 parliament members and several legislators from the loyalist camp have declared support in public for Geagea’s release so that he would be able to lead the LF in the spring parliamentary elections.

Syrians leave and… people brandish their portraits of Geagea!

The Syrian army has evacuated the key Bekaa Valley town of Deir Al Ahmar near Baalbek, triggering jubilant celebrations by the predominantly Christian population loyal to jailed Lebanese Forces Commander Samir Geagea.
Demonstrators took to the streets the moment the Syrians pulled away from their last post in Deir Al Ahmar. They brandished big Geagea portraits along with a forest of LF flags and Lebanon’s national colors.

The Deir Al Ahmar evacuation coincided with massive withdrawal operations that saw more than 200 Syrian tanks, armored personnel carriers and military trucks loaded with Syrian soldiers crossing the border back to Syria proper overnight through the Masnaa-Jdeidet Yabous pass, many towing anti-aircraft guns.

Aoun is also set to return to Lebanon purportedly by May 7.

EIRUT: Former Army Commander General Michel Aoun said on Wednesday from Paris he intended to return to Lebanon by the end of April. He said: “I have always said I would return to the country when the Syrian occupation of Lebanon came to an end and now the occupation is almost over. I will be back by the end of the month.”

He expected that he would be able to announce an official return date sometime next week.

The freedom of Geagea and the return of exiled Aoun are two major demands that the opposition has, actually.

On the more upbeat note, a campaign has been launched to revive Lebanon’s tourism.

Thousands upon thousands jammed downtown Beirut for a late night dinner extravaganza and overnight leisure at sidewalk cafes Saturday-Sunday, answering a call to stop mourning and revive a city buffeted by nearly two months of political and economic turmoil following the assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri.

His sister, Bahiya Hariri, the rising star in Lebanon’s politics, along with Nora Jumblat, wife of opposition leader Walid Jumblat, the slain premier’s longtime ally, are leading the campaign to revive the downtown district that was rebuilt by the slain prime minister from the ravages of the 1975-1990 civil war.

The campaign kicked off on Friday and is scheduled to bustle through April 13, which marks the 30th anniversary of the civil war outbreak. Banking on the true national unity generated among Lebanon’s 18 sects by Hariri’s tragic death, the multi-pronged drive has been dubbed ‘United Lebanon Above All, a Homeland for All.’

“The message to all is: Lebanon will stay alive, just like Rafik Hariri wanted it,” Bahia Hariri told reporters as she toured the posh restaurants and sidewalk cafes of the downtown district, lingering at her brother’s favorite caf???? just across the street from the Lebanese parliament.

Read my post on how Syria is using the carbombs to kill Lebanon’s tourism. They’re fighting back against it with good ole capitalism! This whole campaign started with the unity demonstration that took place on Sunday on the 30th anniversary of the civil war.

BEIRUT, Lebanon ???????? At least 20,000 Lebanese took part in a run Sunday to demonstrate unity after two months of political turmoil.

Under a warm spring sun, the runners set off from Beirut’s Riad Solh Square on a three-mile course that passed near the seafront boulevard where former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 19 others were killed in a massive bomb attack on Feb. 14.

They finished at Martyrs’ Square, the scene of a demonstration that brought down the government and numerous other protests during the past seven weeks.

Hariri’s sister, lawmaker Bahiya Hariri, released 50 white pigeons to start Sunday’s event, which was dubbed ???????United We Run.???????

???????There is no fear for this country as long as this great people are adamant on upholding their national unity, civil peace, independence, freedom and sovereignty,??????? Hariri said in a speech before the start.

The run is part of a series of activities that will mark the 30th anniversary of the beginning of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war on April 13, 1975.

There will be concerts and exhibitions of art and photography.

Most of the participants wore white for peace.

Hussein Majid, who completed the course in a wheelchair, said: ???????I came to show loyalty to Lebanon and for the sake of unity among the Lebanese.???????

Blogs:
Mustapha notes that Jumblatt’s stances are turning from the opposition. I admit to being part of the group that agrees with the Hizb’allah negotiations as I think it will lead to their eventual snookering, but I definitely am against Jumblatt’s position on the electoral districting changes.

Eve at the Lebanese Bloggers Forum is really excited about the unity display and posts a whole list of fun activities to do. That “Kick Boxing” Shogun Club sounds interesting.

The Lebanese Political Journal has more info on the “Syrian Police” who were caught in Beirut. Apparently they were caught planting a bomb. Also, some thoughts on Hizb’allah and disarming.

And last but certainly not least, Michael Totten is blogging in Lebanon with fantastic photos and descriptions of everything going on around him. Check it out. This is original blog content at its best. Be sure to also consider donating to Spirit of America’s project there for keeping the tent city going through the elections.

It seems that on the way back from Pope John Paul II’s funeral, Karami made the announcement that his new government will be formed by tomorrow and that elections may be delayed by up to six months!

Premier-Designate Omar Karami has scheduled the announcement of the new government from the Baabda presidential palace for 11 a.m. Monday, leaving it to parliament to decide whether the spring legislative elections could be held on deadline, An Nahar reported on Sunday.
Karami made the revelation in remarks to Lebanese reporters Saturday aboard the jetliner that carried him with President Lahoud back from Pope John Paul II’s funeral in the Vatican.

An Nahar said the elections were certain to be delayed three to six months for ‘technical considerations related to field arrangements of the polls.’ Syria’s loyalists of the Ein El-Tineh camp want the delay also to cool down the massive pro-opposition sentiment generated by ex-Premier Hariri’s assassination.

Asked whether the current parliament would extend its mandate beyond the May 13 deadline of its mandate, Karami said “that is up to the parliament to decide. We do not interfere in legislative affairs.”

The new government will be made up of 30 cabinet ministers, 18 of them from Karami’s outgoing government that resigned in the wake of Hariri’s Feb. 14 assassination. An Nahar said State Prosecutor Adnan Addoum would be replaced as justice minister by former cabinet secretary Hisham Shaar.

Loyalists are insisting that Suleiman Franjieh would be pressured into returning to the interior portfolio in the new government although he had emphatically denied to An Nahar that he would reverse his decision to stay out.

Vice Premier Issam Fares is reportedly certain to retain his post. He said Saturday “the biggest crime is to talk about ousting the president of the republic. He is the symbol of the nation and his removal amounts to toppling Lebanon’s institutions,” according to An Nahar.

Interesting. I’ll do a big Lebanon roundup tomorrow.

Michael Totten and Jim Hake are on the ground in Lebanon, raising money for the Cedar Revolutionaries. I got this email from Jim just a while ago:

I’m in Beirut, Lebanon to kick off a project to support the pro-democracy demonstrators at the "tent city" in Martyrs’ Square. Their goals are independence (i.e., Syria out of Lebanon) and free and fair elections.   The tent city demonstrators are the center of gravity for Lebanon’s pro-democracy movement.  They are leading the charge.  They put together the massive demonstrations 3 weeks ago.  As they go, so goes Lebanon’s independence.  And so goes a great opportunity for democratic transformation of the Middle East and Arab world.

They need our help to sustain their struggle.  Our project is raising support for them (food, shelter, water, etc.) While I’m here we’re looking into other things to help (e.g., Internet access at tent city)

People can go here to help: http://www.spiritofamerica.net/projects/96

100% of all donations go directly to the things that will help the
pro-democracy demonstrators.

Syria is publicly acting like it is playing nice and withdrawing.
Behind the scenes they are destabilizing the country, delaying the elections and intimidating the opposition.  The good guys in Lebanon need our support.

This will likely be as important as the work Spirit of America is doing in Iraq. Take some time to check out the latest and do what you can to help out. Any contribution will help.

So far this is the fourth bomb to strike within the last three weeks, just as Syria will finish pulling out its troops by next week.

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A bomb damaged a shopping center in a Christian area northeast of Beirut Friday, the fourth attack against an anti-Syrian target in two weeks. The blast lightly injured seven people, one of them an American, police said.

The explosion in the resort town of Broummana, 10 miles northeast of the Lebanese capital, started a fire and shattered glass in several buildings, blew out store shutters and smashed several cars. Firefighters workers working in a steady downpour evacuated residents at the posh complex.

Broummana is lightly populated in winter but packed in the summer with Arab and other tourists. President Emile Lahoud’s hometown of Baabdat is only a few miles up the same mountain ridge.

Police said the bomb was placed in an underground parking lot at the center. Police estimated the explosive at 44 pounds.
…
The explosion at the posh complex was the fourth since March 19, when a bomb ripped through the commercial and residential neighborhood of New Jdeideh.

Now, besides all of the attacks being in Christian neighborhoods, there is one big similarity between all of these attacks, including the Hariri assassination. The economy.

Syria has an estimated $1 billion stake to be lost with its removal from Lebanon. The first bomb that murdered Hariri was set off in downtown Beirut. Now many restaurants have had to slash prices just to seat a few tables. The first bombing was in a residential/commercial area, the third in an industrial complex, and the second and fourth in shopping malls. The recent explosions have also occured primarily at night, so that while not many people are injured, the bombs are big enough to scare the pants off people.

So what does this all mean? The malls that were targetted are prime destinations for foreigners and local alike to go shopping. Locals will be scared to go to places hit, and foreigners will be scared to go to the country at all. An article I found in the Daily Star has a lot of good to say about tourism growth in 2004, but it has heavily dropped since February.

BEIRUT: The number of tourists visiting Lebanon last month plunged 18.5 percent below last February’s level, signaling hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses for the economy.

Newly released figures from the Tourism Ministry show only 49,796 tourists visited Lebanon last month, down from 61,113 in February 2004.

“If the situation was normal, our expectations would have been higher than they were in 2004,” Tourism Minister Wadih Khazen told The Daily Star. “We are trying our best to keep up with the tourist season for the coming summer and we are in close contact with tourist offices in other countries to attract people to Lebanon.”

The sharp drop in arrivals occurred after the explosion that ripped through Downtown Beirut on February 14, killing former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 17 others.

No figures are yet available for March, but the series of bomb attacks targeting Christian areas in Beirut’s eastern and northern suburbs have kept hotel occupancies low and foreign tourists wary about safety.

I guarantee the figures for March and then April will be lower. Everyone knows Lebanon will not break out into a civil war because they know the violence is being commited by a foreign power. But Syria is trying to make it as painful for them as possible, both their hearts and their pocketbooks.

One last thing to note is that Ya Libnan! is reporting that a bomb is suspected near Hariri’s residence and the police are investigating.

Hariri’s Security are scanning the Koreitem area (west Beirut), near assassinated PM Hariri’s residence using dogs and flashlights for a suspected bomb. Our corrospondent at the scene in Koreitem advised that more updates will follow as we get more details.

So much is going on in the world that a large roundup of Lebanon has been hard to do, but there’s been quite a bit of news lately so it’s certainly a good time to do one.

News:
Over the past week and a half three bombs exploded near Beirut in mainly Christian suburbs. Christians have been one of the major backings in Lebanon (as well as Ukraine) in the opposition protests. But this is not the Lebanon of 25 years ago. This is a Lebanon that is united for their own sovereignty above what Syria will do to them, so there is likely no chance whatsoever of a civil war.

In demonstration of this solidarity, a protest of all women demonstrated against the attack.

Thousands of women from all Lebanese confessions have staged a demonstration at slain ex-premier Hariri’s graveside, shouting impassioned chants that the recent wave of bombings in and around Beirut would not break the national unity generated by Hariri’s blood.
Brandishing Lebanese flags and chanting “We Want the Truth. Ask the Sister,’ the women marched from the scene of Hariri’s assassination at central Beirut’s St. George seaside resort to the tomb at the downtown Martyrs Square, where hundreds of opposition activists have been maintaining a graveside vigil said the Feb. 14 murder. The ’sister’ in the chant was a reference to Syria.

Leading the demonstration were legislators Naila Mouawad, widow of slain ex-President Rene Mouawad, and Ghenwa Jalloul, of Hariri’s bloc in Parliament. A poster reading in English “Stop State Terrorism” was waved over the front row of the demonstration, referring to the bombing attacks in Jdeideh, Kaslik and Dekwaneh.

“Enough blood, enough assassinations and enough bombs,” other posters hollered, blaming the bombing wave on Lebanon’s Syrian-controlled security services.

Here are more pictures from that demonstration. It looks like they are more of the MILF type though. Protest babes come in all ages!

The petition to release Samir Geagea. leader of the Lebanese Forces, from jail has gathered steam as a demonstration took place.

Lebanese Forces activists have staged an Easter demonstration at Samir Geagea’s hometown of Besharri demanding his release from nearly an 11-year imprisonment as a drive for a parole gathered steam in parliament.
Legislator Nicholas Fattoush has added his signature to a parliamentary petition for an amendment of a 1991 post-civil war amnesty law to allow the LF commander to be set free from jail at the Defense Ministry compound in Yarze, where he spent more than 10 years in solitary confinement.

“I am signing the ‘free Geagea’ bill because his freedom is an essential requirement of a genuine national reconciliation,” Fattoush said as he signed at Geagea’s suburban house north of Beirut in the presence of his wife Strida and parliament member Nihmatallah Abi Nasr Monday, An Nahar reported on Tuesday.

Abi Nasr is one of the six legislators who signed the bill last week. The draft needs between six and 10 signatures to set the amendment move in motion at the 128-member legislature.

Hundreds of LF activists brandishing Geagea’s portraits in a forest of LF and Lebanese national flags paraded in the streets of Besharri, shouting slogans demanding his unconditional release as a precondition for national reconciliation.

The LF has forcefully joined the opposition drive to end Syria’s tutelage over Lebanon in the wake of ex-Premier Hariri’s assassination. So did exiled Gen. Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Activists from the two far-right groupings are taking part in the 43-day-old non-stop vigil at Hariri graveside.

This is one of the demands, pretty much that political exiles and prisoners be allowed back. Another big one is the resignation of the security bosses, and the head chief has just taken a “vacation.”

The chief of Lebanese military intelligence, whose resignation the opposition is demanding, stepped aside Tuesday by taking a one-month leave, a military official said.
Maj. Gen. Raymond Azar, the director of military intelligence, took a one-month “administrative leave,” the official said.

The anti-Syrian opposition has been demanding the resignation of Azar, five other generals and prosecutor-general Adnan Addoum in the wake of the Feb. 14 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri, which the opposition has blamed on Damascus and its allies in Lebanon.

General Georges Khoury, head of intelligence in the Mount Lebanon province, was appointed to fill the post in Azar’s absence.(AP)

The opposition is still holding out for the resignation of four other security chiefs as well as the prosecutor general.

Another big hit comes with Karami. Even though he was recently reappointed as prime minister, he hasn’t been able to form his “national unity” bipartisan government. The opposition wants to see a neutral government concerned with overseeing Syria’s withdrawal and free and fair elections. With Karami’s failure to establish a new government, he has yet again resigned.

The pro-Syrian prime minister in Lebanon said Tuesday that he would step down because he could not persuade anti-Syrian opposition figures to join a national unity government to lead the country to elections due in May.

In a move that could delay those polls, the prime minister, Omar Karami, told reporters that he was not willing to lead a cabinet that did not include both pro-Syrian loyalists and opposition.

“I ‘m not willing to form a government of this sort and I came to put the speaker in the picture,” he said after meeting Parliament’s speaker, Nabih Berri. “I am going to see the president to inform him of this decision.”

President Lahoud and the opposition are finally beginning to work on this transitional government, however, through the intervention of the Maronite Patriarch.

A consensus is shaping up between President Lahoud’s Syrian-backed regime and Lebanon’s opposition front on a political truce to allow the formation of a transitional government of 6-to-10 elder statesmen to conduct the spring parliamentary elections on schedule or with a delay of up to three months, An Nahar reported Tuesday.
The crux of the developing accord came out from an Easter meeting between Lahoud and Patriarch Sfeir, which was welcomed by most of the effective forces on Lebanon’s political spectrum and conveyed to Premier-Designate Omar Karami, who said he needed some 48 hours to make up his mind, An Nahar said.

The Beirut media was unanimous, however, that Karami was bent on turning down anything short of a national unity government made up of the opposition and loyalists, invariably quoting him as saying he would see Lahoud at the Baabda palace Wednesday to tell him ‘I am quitting.’

Outgoing economy minister Adnan Kassar and ex-premier Salim Hoss have been tipped as front-runners to head the new government of elders if and when Karami steps aside. Former Foreign Minister Fouad Butros, ex-Premier Rashid Solh, former Justice Minister Nasri Maalouf and ex-Information Minister Michel Edde are widely tipped as members of the concise cabinet.
…
The opposition is contending that the delay should not exceed May 31, when the mandate of the current parliament expires. But the loyalist camp is pressing for postponement ranging from three to six months, according to An Nahar

There isn’t enough reason to put off the elections, though. This government can easily be formed and, if Assad continues to withdraw, Syria will be out by the middle of next week.

The deadline has been pressured from two months down to 20 days as of last Wednesday. This made the middle of next week the historic date for the departure of the last Syrian soldier from Lebanon, An Nahar’s Domestic Affairs Editor Nicholas Nassif reported.

Assad’s decision was conveyed to the Lebanese army command in the latest of three unpublicized meetings held by the Lebanese-Syrian joint military committee March 18, 21 and 26, Nassif wrote.

“The decision quickens the pace for a complete termination of Syrian military and intelligence presence in Lebanon to strip the U.N. Security Council from any alibis to keep Syria under pressure,” An Nahar’s Nassif stressed.

I’m less concerned about the soldiers and more so about thei ntelligence and collaboration between them and Hizb’allah, however. They have right to be concerned, with the UN report condemning them and the backed Lebanese government in Hariri’s murder, as well as establishing an international investigation that they have agreed to because they really have no other choice.

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud has pledged full cooperation with the United Nations in order to bring to justice the assassins of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.

Mr Lahoud “stressed his commitment to do whatever it takes to reveal the circumstances surrounding the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, in cooperation with the United Nations by whatever method it adopts in order to know the identity of the perpetrators of the crime,” a statement said.

The president also called for “the heaviest sanctions to be imposed on those the investigation proves hatched the plot, those who carried it out and those who helped with its execution”.

“The measures will affect all those who, according to the results of the inquiry, are proved to have been negligent in their duties or who committed errors that damaged the reputation of Lebanon, its institutions and its security services.”

The presidential statement came after the foreign minister, Mahmoud Hamoud, said Lebanon would agree to the creation of an international commission of inquiry if it is called for the UN Security Council.

A video has also been captured showing the suspect car in the Hariri blast.

Meanwhile on the Hizb’allah front, the opposition seems to be trying to neutralize them on the pro-Syria front by saying they should keep their arms.

Lebanon’s most prominent anti-Syrian opposition leader said yesterday that Hezbollah, the Syria-backed Shiite Muslim group, should keep its weapons until Israel withdraws from Shebaa Farms, a tiny disputed border enclave on the border between Lebanon, Israel and Syria’s Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The meeting between Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the first between the two prominent figures since last month’s car-bomb assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, could signal a thaw in frosty relations between the opposition and Hezbollah.

Indeed. Now that they have their only demand fulfilled, they are put into a position where they effectively must coordinate with the opposition or be seen as truely Syrian-controlled (something not all so popular as you can imagine). Certainly, with the change in Lebanese politics since February, whether or not they have arms may not make a difference if they are legitimately voted down a notch.

Blogs:
Tony has a brilliant analysis on the compromise with Hizb’allah. One thing he notes is that Jumblat did not announce this compromise before consulting with U.S. officials, and since it is the case that President Bush has already said Hizb’allah might have a place in Lebanese politics, I think it is clear that once elections are held, Hizb’allah will be forced to moderate or begin to lose.

The Head Heeb has part five of his introduction to Lebanese politics.

Amer Chehab wonder what all the explosions mean for Lebanon’s stability while Mustapha recalls Hama Rules for us. Luckily, it hasn’t come to anything like that yet. But the posts certainly highlight the worries about Syria that many Lebanese have.

This Reuters analysis thinks that Syria’s influence won’t end with the pullout (duh). Tony goes further, noting the vast cash cow Syria has to lose there, and the Lebanese Political Journal notes some business connections between the two.

Lastly, Michael Young has a pretty damning editorial about the UN investigation with regards to the Lebanese government.

The Fitzgerald report is much more than an investigation into a murder. It is, first, an accusation against both the Syrian and Lebanese security services, suggesting they were responsible for creating a climate that led to Hariri’s assassination, even as it strongly implies they were also directly responsible. Second, it is an expos???? of how the Lebanese authorities sought to manipulate evidence at the crime scene, perhaps behaving criminally. Third, it is an indictment of the Syrian-dominated order in Lebanon. And finally, it is a proposal to dismantle that order.

Lastly, John Chilton of The Emirates Economist notes that the Arab media is catching on to our fascination with their women!

I hate this, because I’m having to write this headline every few days now. The second went off on Tuesday and the first a week ago Saturday. This latest one occurred just today, the third in a string of Syrian intimidation.

March 26 (Bloomberg) — A car bomb explosion rocked a Christian quarter in east Beirut Saturday night, killing two Indian nationals and injuring eight people, Agence France-Presse reported, citing the official Lebanese news agency ANI.

This explosion, which occurred around 9:30 p.m. local time, was heard throughout the Lebanese capital, shaking buildings on hills to the east, AFP said. This is the third explosion in the Christian quarter in the past week.

Ya Libnan! is reporting with more, noting that four buildings are still burning. It is again a Christian area, and they targetted a printing press. An explosion this huge rocked this entire city, so it suffice to say that slowly but surely the firepower the Syrians are willing to use is continually stepping up.

Having been so involved with the events in Lebanon, I was hoping to do my own analysis of the UN findings on the Hariri assassination. But due to real life work and school starting back up next week (not to mention I’m preparing to cover the big protests in Taiwan all night…) it’s going to be a bit tough. However, rest assured! USMC_Vet has a complete, thorough analysis of the document and the reactions to it. In fact, let me give you some Cliff Notes:
1. Document released detailing Syrian and Lebanese government coverup.
2. They deny it.
3. Call for international probe.
4. …
5. Back where we started.

And if you’re interested, here is the full text, which does not include my sarcastic snipes at Syria (or alliteration for that matter).

MORE: Naharnet has taken its favorite scathing excerpts from the report and posted them.

You may remember earlier in the week when a bomb went off, triggering quite a bit of anxiety about the possiblity of another civil war and the influence of Syrian intelligence. Another one just went off. It took me awhile to find a good article that wasn’t full of “Hizb’allah rules; American drools” filler info.

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Three people were killed and five wounded early on Wednesday when a bomb exploded at a shopping center in a Christian town north of the Lebanese capital Beirut, police sources and local television said.

The explosion, the second in a commercial Christian area in five days, fueled growing concerns that a deepening political crisis following the assassination of a former prime minister last month could plunge the country into chaos.

The roof of the center in the coastal town of Kaslik, 12 miles north of Beirut, had collapsed and emergency services workers searched through the rubble for other victims.

Windows of nearby buildings were shattered and broken glass littered nearby streets.

Investigators were quickly on the scene. Police sources said indications were that the blast was caused by an explosive charge placed inside the multi-storey center which had been closed.

It was not clear who the casualties were, but rescue workers speculated most were either guards or foreign cleaning staff at the building. The toll would have been much worse if the blast had taken place in daytime at the usually crowded street.

“It is clear that those who carried out this attack are targeting the security and stability of the country,” opposition parliament member Faris Bouez told reporters at the scene. “It is a political message to the (anti-Syrian) independence uprising.”

In the previous incident, a car bomb exploded in a Christian suburb of Beirut early on Saturday, wounding 11 people.

The explosion at around 1:30 a.m. (6:30 p.m. EST) came amid acute political tension since the Feb. 14 killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri in another bombing. The assassination triggered a wave of anti-Syrian protests.

International pressure forced Syria to announce a troop withdrawal from Lebanon. It has already cut the number of its forces in its neighbor and a timetable for a complete pullout would be agreed in early April.

“The aim is chaos … The country is the target,” another Christian opposition parliamentarian, Ghanem al-Boun, said in Kaslik.

Already, here is a reaction from Raja Abu Hassan:

Events on the ground are proving that the Syrians have not left Lebanon. They have withdrawn some of their troops and ostensibly closed their “intelligence offices” in Beirut and a few towns, but they still control Lebanon.

I have arrived at a conclusion: Everytime Lahoud “releases a statement,” I will ignore that it came from that excuse for a president; and tell myself that it was released direct from Damascus. Lahoud is nothing but the face of the Syrian apparatus in Lebanon. Until Lebanon is clensed from both him and that apparatus, I will not consider my country liberated.

The Lebanese Blogger Forum has more as well:

Al Jazeera interviewed some people saying two Indian workers were killed from what appears to have been a 70 KG bomb. The amount of deaths and injuries are not confirmed yet. The numbers I’ve heard range from 2-4 killed and 8-11 injured. It happened in a predominantly Christian neighborhood Kaslik in the port town of Jounieh at 130am. I know the place well. This is the second Christian neighborhood that has been bombed in the past week. It doesn’t bode well for Lebanon just as Kofi Annan says he’s secured an agreement from Assad to pull his troops and intelligence services from Lebanon after a timetable is given by early April.

I’m much more upset than I appear. I’m trying to keep a lid on it for now. I hope the truth comes out. Because this is no way to live. We cannot, I repeat, we cannot let the old divisions rise again. As soon as it becomes a tit for tat circumstance, we have all lost. I call for calm. I call for peace. For the sake of Lebanon…

I’m sure there will be more as the day there progresses. Last time Ziad Zacca had pictures of the devasted area.

I’m going to bed, so more on this — and Lebanon in general — tomorrow. It must be noted that all of the “car bombs” so far have not actually been car bombs, but seem to have originated from under the cars. One of the theories floated is that it they are planted in the water drainage areas, or that there are possibly tunnels under the road. If that is indeed the case, and given that these are time activated bombs, Syria does not even have to be directly present to set them off. Let’s hope that this is not what is happening.

BOMB DETAILS:

The bomb, planted under the stairway entrance to the Alta Vista mall, exploded at 1:30 a.m. Police believe the bomb was at least 20 kilograms (44 pounds) of explosives. The center was closed at the time of the blast. Otherwise, a public atrocity would have happened.

There is a big difference between what happened years ago and what is happening now — everyone knows it is the Syrian intelligence doing this.

UPDATE: Ziad has photos up.

In my Lebanon roundups, especially when the mass protests were going on, I referenced the online forum of an opposition group known as the Lebanese Forces. Their leader, Samir Geagea, was thrown in jail by the Syrians because of his work against them. Recently, there is a move to get him out.

A move is underway in parliament to get Lebanese Forces commander Samir Geagea released from jail before the spring elections, slain ex-premier Hariri’s Al Mustaqbal newspaper reported on Monday.
It said six parliament members have signed a proposed draft bill to amend the 1992 amnesty law on an emergency basis in order to have Geagea released from nearly 11 years in prison at the defense ministry jail in Yarze before the April-May election deadline.

The signatories are Fares Boueiz, Bassem al Sabaa, Akram Shehayyeb, Ala’ Terro, Nihmatallah Abi Nasr and George Kassarji. They are studying the proper timing for tabling the draft bill before the 128-member parliament, Al Mustaqbal said.

It implied that the draft would be submitted after a visit Geagea’s wife, Strida Geagea, plans to make to Speaker Berri in the near future.

Geagea’s release has long been an opposition precondition for finalizing a national reconciliation to remove the lingering aftermath of the 1975-1990 civil war. The return of Gen. Aoun from nearly 14 years in exile in France is also an opposition precondition.

Aoun, who heads the Free Patriotic Movement, has declared he would return home after the Syrian army and intelligence services complete their full withdrawal from Lebanon hopefully before the spring elections.

He’s been locked up for nearly 11 years, and mainly because the Syrians wanted him there. With them leaving, if he isn’t out before the elections, then most likely he’ll be out shortly after.

Arthur Chrenkoff has a special roundup of recent events in the Middle East that he has dubbed the “Pro-Democracy Edition.” And in that respect, you should definitely check it out. For an older post in this same regards, check here if you haven’t seen it already.