Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez this week threatened to blow up all of Venezuela’s oil wells, should the perfidious yanquis be so insolent as to attack. He does this partly to whip up paranoia in the shantytowns, but generally, even his own supporters are not fooled. The other reason he does it is to whip up fear in the international oil markets and thus drive up the price for his ever-diminishing oil production. He’s on record as saying he wants oil at $100 a barrel. The oil markets are a bit slower to catch on to Chavez’s B-S than the shantytown dwellers, but they too have now started to ignore him and drive prices down whenever he opens his mouth.

Today, someone at Tal Cual newspaper in Caracas called Chavez on it, and did one of the most brilliant, funny satires of a chavista kamikaze sent to blow up the oil wells I have ever seen. It even translates brilliantly. I snickered like crazy on this, because it rang so true. I was even tempted to brazenly steal it from Miguel’s site and just post it here but can’t do that. Anyway, if that’s persuasive enough, click to read the hilarious satire of a third-world rube sent by Hugo Chavez to go blow up some oil wells here.

UPDATE: LINK FIXED! Thanks Joe!

Here are the photos showing the Cuban patriot Martha Beatriz Roque after being beaten up by plainclothes paramilitary mobs inside her own house in Havana, Cuba.

More below,the thugs put propaganda banners behind her house’s door comparing President Bush and the patriot Luis Posada Carriles to Hitler:

Below, Bush appears as saying “Long Live Martha”. Per se this phrase is not at all a scandal, but the Castroite thugs use it as a way to accuse Marha of being a “US agent”.

See all the photos here, including the flowers sent to her by the embassies of some European countries.

Well, as we approach nearly 2 months since Ukraine’s first democratic elections of the century, the political wrangling continues. Any Kiev watchers will be familiar with the daily news stories coming out from Our Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc, The Party of Regions and the Socialists in regard to coalition building talks. Every evening a brief Google news search highlights constant backstabbing, foot-stamping and occasionally outright lies passed on to the international media.

Today, one such story emerged from the oh so reliable ITAR-TASS. For the busy, a brief summary: Our Ukraine (Viktor Yushchenko’s pro-European, Liberal Bloc) and the Party of Regions (Former Kuchma ally and Presidential candidate, Viktor Yanukovych’ pro-Russian, Industrialist Bloc) have allegedly agreed upon a new joint ‘neutral’ premier - Serhey Taruta.

The flaws in this item? Well let’s first look at the political issues associated with the article

This story for starters, leaves me feeling suspicious. For non-Ukrainian readers, just yesterday, Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych claimed he would accept nothing less than the Prime Ministers post in any future government - somewhat interesting when we consider today’s alleged announcement. A sudden U-Turn in the space of 24 hours?

Secondly during his trip to Latvia today, President Yushchenko claimed that Ukraine would join NATO by 2008. Somewhat at odds with the staunch pro-Russian position adopted by Yanukovych. I think it is fair to say that many core supporters of the Party of Regions would rather surrender their very houses than see Ukraine join such a pro-American organisation.

Moving on to the reliability of the original story. Despite ITAR-TASS claiming the ’sensational’ report was broadcast by ‘a number of electronic mass media organs’ I cannot find a single other site with such a story. Not Interfax-Ukraine, nor 5TV, not even the Kiev Post. Perhaps a story put-out by a partisan Russian news site?

Comparing the Russian and English editions of ITAR-TASS, the impartiality of the Anglo version seems to be much greater than the Russo counterpart. For example, readers of the mother tongue version will not be hearing the tales of the Belarusian opposition leader’s arrest, nor of the recent demonstrations by journalists in Moscow - all stories covered in the western-tailored English site.

The lessons of this story?

Ukrainian coalition talks are likely to drag on until Yushchenko accepts Tymoshenko’s Premiership. Afterall, even if another member of her party took the reigns over, they would be taking orders from party leader Yulia - someone they most likely share similar viewpoints with. The Yanukovych option is not viable in my opinion as Yushchenko would be alienating both his own voters and party’s representatives, and the Regions have not yet shown their full commitment to European politics.

As for ITAR-TASS…it is not of great concern for myself here in London, yet must be for Democratic forces in Moscow. The manner in which the state-run agency portrays one image to the West and another to it’s own people is a true demonstration of the downward spiral in Russian media pluralism. I guess just how far that spiral continues will be shown in 2008, but for now Ukraine’s Orange Revolution appears safe and sound.

But not exactly in the way you might think. The Venezuelan dictator vowed to recall Venezuela’s ambassador to Peru if Peru’s voters DARED cast their ballot for Alan Garcia instead of his favored Ollanta Humala in next month’s second-round presidential debate.

It’s so insane, so guaranteed to backfire, so likely to rally the Garcia vote, so likely to hurt Humala that it makes me think Chavez is on cocaine.

Peruvians don’t particularly care one way or another about diplomatic relations with Venezuela. What they do care about is some foreign dictator trying to dictate how they will vote through various coercions. They will strike hard at Chavez by rallying for Garcia. Garcia is not perfect but he’s independent and democratic and his election will be good for everyone.

Aleksander Boyd at VCrisis has the scoop here.

UPDATE: Alan Garcia has challenged the Venezuelan dictator to a debate on CNN! He doesn’t see a need to debate Ollanta Humala, given that Chavez controls that puppet, and wants to go straight to the source! What a gutsy guy! Read it here!

Chavista mismanagement (and thieving) has left Venezuela with a $2 billion oil shortfall on its contracts. The country literally DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH OIL to supply all the nations it’s signed contracts with to supply. Therefore, it’s buying $2 billion in oil from Russia to avoid penalties, not the least of which is its claim to be an important oil superpower.

It’s nothing to be surprised about, given that socialism ALWAYS produces shortages. That’s been a lesson to the world for about 80 years. The example this travesty parallels most closely is from 30 years ago, when the Soviet Union, which had been a breadbasket under the Russian czars, was driven by shortages to purchase U.S. wheat. Communism produces the same result no matter how many ways you try it. And insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. That brings us back to Hugo Chavez.

I know dense people who still believe that oil production has not fallen in Venezuela. They claim it has too much oil and oil companies investing there will pay any price to get it. As noble Exxon Mobil has shown, they will not. There are limits to how much rubbish they can take from dictators because they must answer to shareholders and cannot show losses. Unlike Chavez, they are accountable.

Oil to Chavez is not an important resource with potential for creating value, to be treated with attentiveness through the cycles of investment, production and maintenance. Instead, oil, to him, is something that comes out of the ground on his command. It’s a bottomless commodity whose chief purpose is his own aggrandisement.

That’s led to many harsh measures on the producers of oil, whom he dubs “robbers.” He’s killed incentive to produce by firing the state oil company’s talented staff, by breaking contracts with western oil companies who invest there - forcing them into joint ventures which are nothing more than workers’ collectives. He’s rendered the state oil company intransparent, closing all of its books to the public and creating a petri dish for corruption.

That’s been killing oil production to the point of oil shortages in the oil giant. Oil production is down 60% from the pre-Chavez days. Sixty stinking percent! Venezuela is the only OPEC member besides Indonesia that is now producing below quota, what should be a sign to everyohe that Chavez’s rape-and-pillage philosophy toward Venezuela’s oil resources is literally destroying its productive capacity.

If Chavez would stop giving his nation’s oil away like cheap party favors, as he does for Fidel Castro’s no-pay dictatorship in Cuba, his country could probably produce enough oil for its customers in the short term.

Now Venezuela has run out of oil and must pay $2 billion to buy it abroad. Will there be any accountability for this squandering of the national treasure? Of course not. The ballot boxes are rigged. But the rest of the world can look on in scorn as another figurative breadbasket endures its period of starvation under communism. We’ve seen this movie before.

Andy Webb-Vidal at the Financial Times has the story here.

Venezuela buys Russian oil to avoid defaulting on deals

By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas
Published: April 28 2006 03:00 ö Last updated: April 28 2006 03:00

Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, has struck a $2bn deal to buy about 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Russia until the end of the year.

Venezuela has been forced to turn to an outside source to avoid defaulting on contracts with “clients” and “third parties” as it faces a shortfall in production, according to a person familiar with the deal. Venezuela could incur penalties if it fails to meet its supply contracts.

Documentation obtained by the Financial Times shows that the state-owned Petr????leos de Venezuela (PDVSA) made a financing arrangement this month with investment bank ABN Amro to facilitate the purchases of oil from Russia via Rotterdam.

PDVSA is believed to have dropped the Dutch bank after the Russian government agreed to provide Venezuela with an “open account” facility to buy the oil.

The Ruhr Oel refinery in Germany, in which PDVSA has a50 per cent stake, may be among the clients that are being supplied with the Russian oil.

PDVSA would not confirm yesterday that it was buying oil from Russia but said a statement would be issued today. The company said it would be “logical” that the Ruhr refinery was sourcing some of its oil from Russia because it would be cheaper than transporting it from Venezuela.

One US trader who deals in Venezuelan oil agreed, saying: “We have been expecting PDVSA to start buying Äoil from theÅ Urals for the Veba system for some time. It is possible that they are trying to buy directly from Russian producers.”

The move suggests a growing gap between Venezuela’s declining domestic output and its expanding contractual obligations to international customers.

Luis Pacheco, a former planning director of PDVSA, said: “Why would Venezuela be buying crude oil from Russia? I would imagine it would be to meet obligations for light oil deliveries, but they are relatively small. Most of PDVSA’s obligations are for heavy oil.”

Under President Hugo Ch????vez, PDVSA’s oil output has declined by about 60 per cent, a trend analysts say has accelerated in the past year because of poor technical management.

Mr Ch????vez’s push to extend his influence throughout Latin America and the Caribbean with promises of cheap oil for friends and allies may be overstretching PDVSA’s finances, however.

Venezuela currently supplies about 300,000 barrels per day of oil and products to Cuba, Nicaragua and others under favourable long-term financing arrangements.

This week, Venezuela signed a deal to send oil to town mayors in Nicaragua aligned with the leftwing Sandinista party.

UPDATE: Academic Elephant puts it much more eloquently than I here.

UPDATE: Miguel at Devil’s Excrement has an excellent discussion in the comments section on this matter here.

UPDATE: Although I do not agree with the article’s suggestion of peak oil, most of the rest of this new article is very good here.

Even though the Maoists had vowed to continue a blockade of the capital following an announcement by King Gyanendra that he would reinstate parliament, but it was obvious that they had jumped the gun and gone a step too far. They have since retracted that statement (I believe because they simply didn’t have the military means or support in the capital to carry it out), and announced that they will commit to a three month ceasefire. The Seven Party Alliance has announced that the parliament will do the same. The Maoists main demand is the election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution, but they must have believed that the SPA’s acceptance of the King’s stand down would lead to their betrayal of that goal. It was apparent from the start that this was not the case, so it is not surprising that the Maoists are back on board.

Meanwhile, the King has appointed the SPA’s choice for Prime Minister, which means they will get to work immediately on negotiations to figure out the exact details of the election for the constituent assembly. There are a couple of things I think they need to keep in mind.

There must be enough time to prepare for the elections. Some 80% of the country depends on agriculture, which means they will have to figure out ways to set up enough polling booths so that everyone has a chance to participate. They also need to figure out exactly what the nature and size of the constituent assembly will be in the first place, which means prolonged negotiations. The Maoists will certainly have to wait more than three months.

The most important thing, in my view, is making sure that the constituent assembly wholly represents the interests of the Nepalese people. This means that the Maoists will have to lay down their arms during the election so that people are not intimidated. Thousands of international observers need to be brough in so as to monitor the process so that it can run as smoothly and cleanly as possible. Of course, the royal army will have to refrain from intimidating people as well, but the main issue is whether or not one side will try to crush the other when the weapons are supposedly. Given the Royal Nepalese Army’s much greater strength, I’d say its more a worry for the Maoists. But it is important to retain a mutual trust on both sides, as right now there are incredibly high mutual suspicions.

On the international scene, India is doing exactly what a powerful democratic country with a desire to see stability does: it is planning a Himalayan Marshall Plan with tons of economic aid in the form of debt restructuring, infrastructure, and credit infusement. It is the largest package India has ever put together for another country, meant to set off skyrocketing inflation and an economy stalled following three weeks of national turmoil. If it works, it will certainly have a stabilizing effect on Nepal’s political system.

As for the United States, my opinion is mixed. It has been very supportive of the political parties in their goal for democracy since the beginning. At the same time, it has been too bossy in terms of the desired outcome. For example, it has told the Maoists that it must give up its arms immediately and that it wants to see a ceremonial role for the king. Such demands haven’t been well-received by any side. The American ambassador, James Moriarty, has come across as too provocative to me, being known to throw around the word “terrorist” much too often when describing the Maoists. Fact is, they are, but at the same time the King was committing state-sponsored terrorism against his own people. Now the parties are seeking a truce and national reconciliation, which includes detaching the word terrorist from the Maoists. They don’t want to be told how to design the future of their country. If they want a ceremonial role for the monarch, fine, but if they want a republic, fine.

Of course, I myself am highly suspicious of both the monarch and the Maoists. In his concession speech, King Gyanendra said he was committed to both multi-party democracy as well as the monarchy. This says to me that it is well within the range of possibility that should there be no place in the constitution for him, as Supreme Commander of the armed forces under the current constitution, he could try to take power back. As for the Maoists, well, they’re Maoists! This makes me highly suspicious of their motives. What happens when there is democracy? Will they use it to seize power and create a one-party, communist state? Or do they simply want democracy where everyone enjoys equal rights and isn’t repressed from above? These are the kinds of questions we should all be thinking about as Nepal moves toward a new direction.

Imagine a country where you have to get permission to protest, and when the authorities give it to you, they snatch it right back. Then they arrest you and sentence you to 15 days in prison for an “unsanctioned rally.” The same thing happens to your colleagues; some of them are even beaten! What country is this?

I’ll give you one guess: it starts with “B” and ends with “elarus”.

The democratic opposition in Belarus held its first rally since tens of thousands of people protested in March following a fraudulent presidential election handed to current Dictator Alexander Lukashenko. It was to commemorate the tragedy of the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown and to demand the truth from the authorities. Ten thousand people marched. Milinkevich had been warned beforehand that even though the rally was being sanctioned, he would be charged if it wasn’t peaceful.

But it was. So they revoked permission afterward and now Milinkevich, along with other leaders Syarhei Kalyakin, Vintsuk Vyachorka and Alyaksandr Bukhvostau have all been detained. Milinkevich has been sentenced to fifteen days in prison on what is obviously a politically fuelled assault on the democratic opposition by Lukashenko’s regime.

The court of Savetski district of Minsk has sentenced the leader of the democratic forces of Belarus Alyaksandr Milinkevich to 15 days of arrest. The politician has been charged with violation of the Article 167 part 2 ???????? organizing unsanctioned rallies. The peaceful march ???????The Path of Chernobyl??????? held in Minsk on April 26, notably sanctioned by city authorities, has been announced an ???????unsanctioned rally???????. The verdict to Alyaksandr Milinkevich was delivered by judge Yury Harbatouski. The democratic leader called the actions of the authorities ???????political schizophrenia??????? and stated that he was ready for the verdict about his arrest. ???????The developments in Belarus can be called nothing but a political schizophrenia. Today it is obvious that the regime fears us, and it is to bring about the downfall of the dictatorial regime,??????? Alyaksandr Milinkevich said after the sentence had been delivered. The leader of the democratic forces is to serve the sentence in the special remand prison in Akrestsin Street.

This is sure to stir the opposition movement greatly, as all groups have registered their support for Milinkevich and his methods at garnering support with the public. To have him arrested now is to reveeal the utmost hypocrisy within the regime — what Milinkevich called “schizophrenia”. The opposition will want to see him released and will likely try its hardest to get the story out about his arrest so that people sympathize with them. I simply cannot understand how the opposition will not come out stronger following Milinkevich’s release.

After suffering an ‘act of repudiation’ by the plainclothes paramilitaries on the Castro’s payroll, Dr. Darsi Ferrer - director of the Center for Health and Human Rights “Juan Bruno Zayas” - was detained immediately after leaving the U.S. Interests Section in Havana,from where he sends us via email his reports.

Ferrer called the independent journalist Jayme Leigonier via phone and said that the police are gonna take him to another place, but so far nobody knows where he has been taken.

Darsi is currently desaparecido.

UPDATE: I’ve just got an email from Darsi , who sent in the report written by Jayme Leygonier about Darsi’s detention. It seems that he has been released and now is again at the U.S. Interests Section to use the Internet and send his reports.

You can immediately contact him to know how he is doing now : darsiferrerÉyahoo.com

Now he’s at the U.S. Interests Section using the Internet, so I guess he’ll answer you soon.

UPDATE FROM A.M. MORA: Val Prieto at Babalu blog has much more here.

I’ve stumbled across quite a few articles lately about growing support for far-right parties in France and Britain. Of course, while the numbers remain small (though larger in France), it is perhaps the biggest untold story of Western Europe because, for as much as these people preach tolerance, most Europeans I know — very educated people — absolutely hate the “pakis” and the “beurs“. These are exactly the sentiments that the far-right play on, so it is no wonder that they are most popular in white working-class neighborhoods, the same people who consider themselves truly French and British. Resentment against immigration populations now has more French and Britons than ever considering voting for a far-right party.

So perhaps it is not an untold story, but certainly the degree that their popularity has surged all across Europe could never have been imagined. To me, the hidden story of Britain’s May 2005 parliamentary elections was that support for the British National Party surged from .2% to .7%. That’s not much, of course, but then again, out of 646 seats in the House of Commons the BNP only ran 119 candidates, in which they garnered an average of 4.2% in those constituencies. It did much worse in Scotland and Wales, but some constituencies in England had it fair higher than 10%.

It must be noted that the BNP, of course, has no representatives in parliament. This is mainly due to Britain’s “first past the post” system, much like what we have in the United States, where whoever wins the most votes in a single constituency wins the seat. The design itself helps keep out small extremist parties from influencing national politics, even if it were able to garner a full 4.2% on average nationally.

However, support for some of the BNP’s more populist policies are growing, and it is reflected in a much greater number of people “considering voting” for the BNP in local council elections where a small party is much more likely to fair better. According to the survey, some 25% of Brits are now at least considering giving their vote to the BNP for councillorships. Currently the party has 15 councillors, though while not much, it hasn’t fielded particularly many candidates either. This May it plans to field a total of 356 candidates for the local election, much more than it ever has before. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win a few more councillorships.

Some people think that more sympathetic feelings toward the BNP and a possibly greater number of votes cast for it would be more of a protest vote than anything. This was certainly the case in the 2002 French presidential election when Le Pen went to the runoff due to strategic protest voting against the Socialists. Yet the BNP polls consistently well in some constituencies, which leads me to believe that it is a cross of dissatisfaction with the two major parties’ failure to really address voter concerns about the multi-cultural society as well as agreement with some of the BNP’s stances toward these issues. Though they may not win a parliamentary seat now if ever due to the structural solidity of the electoral system, we may certainly see greater penetration by the BNP into local elections. It may be a long way off, but if they can do this and prove their managerial capabilities while reworking their image, I would not be surprised if they eventually do gain entry into parliament.

After all, what is happening in France is reverberating throughout the rest of Europe.

Britain is small fries compared to France, though. According to the New York Times, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s approval ratings have risen 5% to 21% since the immigrant riots last year. That doesn’t necessarily predict voting patterns in the near future, but it is rather scary when pairing it up next to potential presidential candidate Dominique de Villepen’s measly 29%.

Le Pen’s National Front party, much like the BNP, doesn’t have any seats in parliament. However, it does fairly well considering in regional presidency and council elections. It was also able to gain 10 seats in the European Parliament. Its regional council presidents score near 20% in many regional presidency elections, while it scored some 13% of the vote in the 2004 regional council elections. In some regions, it controls 1/3 of the seats. The only reason it isn’t part of any power-sharing arrangement with the right is because the left has done exceptionally well lately, blocking them out. That, however, could change.

While I wouldn’t expect either the BNP or FN to gain national legislative seats anytime soon, the only thing really preventing them from doing so is the electoral systems that they are up against. Mounting dissatisfaction with multi-culturalism in both countries is leading to dissatisfaction with the major parties. But since this isn’t translating into seats at the national level, it very well could lead to something of a political insurgency on the local and regional levels in the long term.

If the major parties can’t figure out how to translate voter anger about issues like immigration into policy that actually works, they’ll be in trouble. As we all well know, France doesn’t have a history of waiting for political change in the “enlightened” halls of parliament. They take it to the streets. Could it ever go the same way in Britain? I believe the British political system to be much more fluid than that of the French, so they are more likely to cope with it. Yet they are once again part of a trend going on all over Europe.

On April 25, Liberation Day in Italy, Italian communist demonstrators shouted “10,100,1000 Nassiryahs”. Today they must be celebrating.

Three Italian heroes have been murdered in a terror attack in Nassiryiah today.

They’re not only victim of terrorists. They’re victim of those politicians on the Left whose first concern is not to heal the frail and declining economy; their first concern is to put an end to the military’s humanitarian work in Iraq. The Italian troops in Nassiryiah had made it clear to Mr. Prodi that they strongly disagree with an immediate withdrawal.
It’s not a coincidence that our troops in Iraq have not voted for Prodi.

Who are the communists in Prodi’s coalition already blaming for the attack? Yes, they’re blaming Bush and Berlusconi.

What should I add more but outrage and disgust?

I don’t hesitate to claim that the terrorists may have thought that by killing our soldiers today they will force Prodi to play the dhimmi he really is and withdraw the troops immediately.

Unfortunately, this is what he’ll do.

May the Islamist killers know that the more they hit us, the more Oriana Fallacis and Fabrizio Quattrocchis will speak out and it may not be from within the Italian political class, but from within the people.

Ten thousand Belarusians gathered to commemorate the victims of the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown twenty years after the disaster. It was organized by the democratic opposition led by Alexander Milinkevich and was the first such rally since the end of March when protestors were brutalized following a peaceful gathering of tens of thousands. You can see a minute-by-minute log of the events at Charter 97.

They had hoped to gather in October Square, the sight of the post-presidential election protests last month, but lines of riot police blocked all avenues to the square. Furthermore, the trains were ordered not to stop at the station there. Alexander Milinkevich swore to defy a warning of his arrest if he led the protest there, but it was impossible to get there. Instead, all those who were going to October Square met up in Yanka Kupala Park, the site of the last opposition rally. From there, Milinkevich led them to the Academy of Science under the slogan ???????Freedom. Truth. Justice.???????

At the Academy of Science, Milinkevich and other opposition leaders spoke to the crowd of ten thousand about the truth of their country; that thousands of people have been beaten and arrested for political reasons, that the government is corrupt, and that it has covered up the truth about Chernobyl for two decades. Thousands of people are still affected by its aftermath. It????????s a scar on the country that can????????t be fixed because much of the truth is being hid by the authorities. That????????s the message that the opposition to getting out to the people.

Milinkevich also had this to say to the crowd: ???????We have taken part in the presidential elections in order to wake people up, to convey truth to them. If we stay united, we shall bring down the dictatorship that had deprived the Belarusian nation the right for choice, and robbed the chance to elect a president of our country in a legal way. We can win if we stay united. I call upon everybody to join the people????????s liberation movement ???????For Freedom!??????? The truth is on our side, and the truth is the strongest weapon. The whole democratic world is at our side. We won????????t wait five years. We will be able to defeat the dictatorship in the two years immediately ahead???????

I believe it!

The demonstration dispersed peacefully, but a few leaders of small opposition groups have been detained for unknown reasons. For the most part, however, the opposition has done very well at remaining peaceful and not instigating the police. So long as they can continue to gather and spread their message within the law, however totalitarian it is, then the police will have no authority to clamp down on them.

You can see more pictures from the protest rally here. Radio Svaboda has more pictures here and here. And protest babes from the past month here.

Br23 reminds us that October Square isn’t always a center of political protest and violence, but a place where young people traditionally gather and lounge about. Fun photos.

Ivan Lenin notes some communists in the opposition rally, showing that even they are anti-totalitarian.

Egypt has been rattled by two sets of terrorist attacks in the past few days; one sequence of bombings in the resort area of Dahab three days ago, and today two suicide bombers blew themselves up near security forces. There is, for sure, no lack of purpose or symbolism that accompanies these attacks. It is an attack on the tourism industry, and by extension, any Muslim that is making disposable income and is enjoying life (as most of those injured were Muslims). It is also an attack on the Mubarak regime’s legitimacy.

Attacking the tourism industry is a favorite for terrorists in Egypt. The industry to date makes up about 10% of the country’s GDP, supplying many well-paying jobs and small businesses for Egyptians. It is the top source of drawing foreign currency as well. What’s most interesting is that more Muslims than ever are visiting the resorts of Sinai for vacation, and given the death toll, more Muslims were killed than foreigners.

The attacks, to a degree, were against Westerners. The Egyptian economy has liberalized significantly in the past several years, so a shock to tourism won’t affect it as much as it would have in the past. People are also used to the idea that terrorist attacks can occur, and every indication shows that if there is a drop in tourism at all, it will be incredibly slight.

But they weren’t the main target. The terrorists were targeting their own people. They don’t want Muslims to have money and spend that money. That’s why they target the Egyptian economy. They want people to stay poor and stupid as they advance their agenda, because as people are able to make more money, they tend to drift away from their traditional beliefs. Islamic radicals wouldn’t be able to flourish in an environment like that. So what do they do? Set off a few bombs to warn the rest of them that they shouldn’t attempt to make progress.

Symbolically the attack is also an attack on President Mubarak’s regime. The promise of having such an authoritarian government, in which the emergency laws have effectively for decades suspended civil liberties, is that it will be able to provide absolute security against such attacks. Yet the Sinai Peninsula is a haven for Islamic radicals and terrorist attacks. That the terrorists were able to so easily bypass the security regimen deals a huge blow to whatever legitimacy Mubarak has left, as people will see the increasingly moronic reason for continuing the emergency laws.Perhaps it is no coincidence that the attacks of the past four years — at Taba, Sharm el-Sheik, and Dahab — have all occurred on national holidays.

The sad squalor that everyday Egyptians live in, combined with their increasing frustration with the Mubarak regime, all add up to the rising prominence of Islamist groups in the country. Mubarak allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to take 1/4 of the seats in last year’s parliamentary elections, but as it became apparent that they would win many more, he cracked down on them. Solely as an alternative to Mubarak, they are much popular than imagined. The problem is that not only are the terrorists’ actions helping to promote them upward, but so are Mubarak’s.

Of course, Mubarak thinks he can dupe the West by pointing to their rise and presenting it as proof that we need to support him. What really needs to happen is Mubarak needs to liberalize the economy and bring in more investment as quickly as possible while relaxing the security regime. He also needs to stop mindlessly cracking down on liberal forces in the country. If he actually did this, then he’d be worth supporting.

As oil prices hit $75 a barrel, the U.S. is right now caught up in an idiotic debate over supposed price-gouging at the pump. Congress wants to investigate oil companies over it.

What they should be doing is asking why the U.S. is dependent for its oil on anti-American Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. We are dependent on him, he knows it, and he abuses us for it. It’s him who, along with his pals the ayatollahs, is deliberately trying to drive oil prices up to $100 a barrel, not the oil companies.

That’s not all. Chavez harasses U.S. oil companies who invest in his country, too, calling these producers of value ‘robbers.’

Like to turn on the light or ride the bus or tram or car or use anything plastic? Like paved roads? So much for ‘robbers.’ Go thank an oil company.

Oil prices are high due to pressure from both supply and demand. New customers who are riding cars and flipping on the electricity for the first time are emerging in China and India. That is increasing pressure on demand.

But new supply is being SUPPRESSED by two disgusting factors: Hugo Chavez is abusing oil companies as ‘capitalists,’ and stealing their assets, breaking their contracts, forcing them into Chavista worker collectives and raising their taxes. Production is down but Chavez really believes that oil produces itself. Instead of thinking of oil as a harvestable commodity, he thinks of oil companies as a harvestable commodity.

Meanwhile, U.S. Congress, in equally horrible stupidity, refuses to allow oil companies to drill offshore in the U.S. due to environmental and aesthetic concerns. This, on an industry that was able to withstand Hurricane Katrina with no spills. It gets really annoying when you realize that Castro gets to drill for oil 35 miles off the Florida Keys but American oil companies, according to our stupid Congress, are too big a risk. Just lovely logic.

One country that has avoided this deathtrap vise of stupid logic is Brazil. Rather than blame oil companies for high prices, they understood the law of supply and demand and went out and drilled their own oil without complaining about other people. They increased supply considerably and this weekend opened a spectacular giant P-50 oil rig that is capable of producing more oil than all the ethanol used in Brazil.

HOW CAN YOU NOT RESPECT A NATION THAT SOLVES PROBLEMS LIKE THAT?

What the heck is wrong with the U.S.? We can’t do much about Hugo Chavez but we sure as heck can put a cork in him by drilling our own oil. That is what the debate should be in Congress, not this stupid artificial dead-end issue of price gouging!

Why aren’t we out drilling like Brazil?

Investor’s Business Daily has an editorial about this here.

Yesterday, while we were having lunch or dinner or driving to work or whatever our peaceful pursuits may be, Fidel Castro’s barbarians assaulted Martha Beatriz Roque, the leading Cuban freedom fighter in an ‘act of repudiation.’ This is nothing more than to say a gang assault sanctioned by the state. Radio Mambi in Miami said she was on the phone with them yesterday when it happened, and the Cuban American Foundation has the transcript of what happened, as Martha Beatriz told it here.

She said (sorry no time to translate but will later):

“…me han dado tantos golpes, me han dado un golpe por el ojo, un hombre gordo fort????simo, un pi????azo por el ojo que casi me saca el ojo… me dieron por la cara, me arrastraron por el piso, me dieron patadas…han acabado conmigo… Estoy dici????ndoles esto a mis hermanos de Miami para que sepan la situaci????n tan dif????cil que estamos viviendo. S????lo porque yo iba a casa de Michael… a una recepci????n, una conferencia por televisi????n, y desde el primer momento no dejaron entrar a mi sobrina a mi casa, desde el primer momento, esto es una situaci????n muy dif????cil muy dif????cil; la comunidad internacional tiene que hacer algo por nosotros porque nosotros no podemos seguir aguantando estas humillaciones, no podemos seguir aguantando esta falta de libertades; de verdad que esto es una situaci????n ya insostenible, yo quisiera que ustedes vieran c????mo tengo la cara, c????mo tengo el cuerpo, estoy vestida de ropa blanca y toda la ropa la tengo sucia y rajada porque me arrastraron por el piso. Yo les ruego por favor que tomen nota de esto y hagan algo por los que estamos aqu???? sufriendo dentro de la isla… no puedo seguir hablando, de verdad, no puedo seguir hablando… (llora)…”

Hat tip to Val Prieto at Babalu blog, who has additional thoughts here. (LINK FIXED)

UPDATE: Agencia EFE has the story here:

Castro loyalists beat dissident

Havana, Apr 26 (EFE).- A mob organized by the Communist government’s secret police beat up a prominent dissident and invaded her home, a human rights group and the victim of the agression said here Wednesday.

Marta Beatriz Roque told EFE that the incident occurred on Tuesday when a group of people stationed themselves in front of her house in the capital to prevent her from attending a meeting at the home of the head of the U.S. Interests Section in Cuba, Michael Parmly.

She said that when she tried to leave her home, about 10 men and two women pushed and beat her in the passageway that leads from the house to the street, and a man entered her residence and slugged her in the face.

She acknowledged she had shouted, “Down with Fidel!,” referring to the aging autocrat who has ruled this island nation since 1959.

Roque, an economist and former university professor, said that after being beaten she had problems seeing out of one eye and had bruises on one of her legs and an arm.

“I feel depressed. I never thought that they would go this far,” said Roque, the head of the Assembly to Promote Civil Society, adding that despite her experience, her morale was not low.
“What they’re doing to me, they’re doing to the entire opposition … This is a message for the whole opposition,” she said, adding that “those people are the hand of Fidel Castro.” The Cuban Committee for Human Rights and National Reconciliation (CCDHRN) denounced what it called the “brutal aggression” against Roque.

In a communique, the CCDHRN, which the Cuban government has declared illegal, said that Roque was “brutally attacked by a mob organized and instigated by the state security police.” It added that “several members of the para-police mob attacked her verbally and physically, they threw her to the ground and then attacked her inside her house, where a very hefty individual slugged her hard in the face.” “This act yesterday is particularly alarming precisely because of the brutality of the attack and the fact that the para-police members committed a series of common crimes (injuries, illegal detention, violation of the home and creating a public scandal, among others),” the CCDHRN said.

The dissident organization said that the incident occurred “under the complacent gaze of the Cuban government,” which it added was the “main (party) responsible for these repressive acts for political ends.” The Cuban government says that the so-called “acts of repudition” agianst opposition figures on the Communist island result from “spontaneous demonstrations” by the public.

The CCDHRN denounced in February a “new wave of political repression” against dissidents by groups of “individuals mobilized by the government.” Roque was the only woman in the group of 75 dissidents sentenced to prison terms of up to 28 years in the spring of 2003. Cuban authorities released her in July 2004 because she was in poor health. EFE jlp/bp

It had to be a day of remembrance of our liberation by the Allies. It has been a day of infamy. Nobody should expect communists or ex-communists to pay tribute to the American fallen soldiers. It’s still too hard for them to recognize that it was America and the Western Allies, and not the Soviet Union, that liberated Italy.

They cannot yet forgive them the legitimate help America gave us in preventing Italy from becoming a Soviet satellite.

But let’s come to yesterday’s sad events.

In Milan, Leftist extremists shouted insults at the former Education Minister (of the Berlusconi’s gov’t, now running for mayor in Milan, a right-wing city). The female minister was going to address the crowd on the occasion of the Liberation Day, and along with her was her Jewish father, who is a Holocaust survivor. As usual, the crowd was made up mostly with Communists, which wasted no time to shout so many insults at the outgoing Minister, that she had to leave the place immediately.

Moreover, the demonstrators started shouting anti-semitic and anti-american slogans such as : “Intifada, Free Palestine, Red Palestine, Israel is a terrorist state”.

The veterans of the Jewish brigade were insulted by black blocks shouting “Zionist assassins”

Below, the Minister with her father and behind them, a crowd of red fascists, with their communist and Che flags

In Rome and other cities, radical leftists again torched the Israeli and U.S. flags and chanted that sad and infamous slogan “10,100,1000 Nassiryiahs” echoing Che Guevara’s “10,100,1000 Vietnams” . That is, they’re calling for more terror attacks against our troops in Iraq that, despite the Iraqi government asked to keep there, the Prodi’s weak government readies to withdraw.

The center-right has been harsh in his criticism of yesterday’s facts. The center-left has also condemned the facts, but some there have done so in a softer way! Communists even seemed to justify them.

Rai Due’s TG2 News Channel has hosted a short intervention by his chief editor, who has openly criticized these facts and wondered if such a leftist government “which started its term in a very weak and bad way, could continue to rule this way and we wonder how long”. The chief editor of TG2 News channel is neither a Berlusconi fan nor a Prodi’s voter.

Yesterday’s facts have also been condemned in a tougher way by the Italian Jewish Community and the Israeli Ambassador, Ehud Gol, who affirmed: “Today, I was highly offended by the Red Fascists”.

Below is a photo showing communists on a side, and the Jewish Brigade and Italian Jews on the other.

Other photos

See thew video here

On behalf of the majority of the Italians, I express my sorrow for these fascistic events and offer my solidarity to the Italian Jews, the American and Israel nations and people.

We always knew there was something wrong with Prime Minister Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and today that missing link got just a little bit more primal. Turns out his idea of democratic revolution is equal rights for apes under the law. That’s right, Zapatero’s gone ape for ape rights, and given that he’s lost the confidence of his human supporters one can probably surmise that he wants to empower a newer and far more loyal core constituency that sees things as he does.

Here are the monkeyshines:

The Great Ape Project is founded upon the genetic similarity between great apes - chimpanzees, bonobos, orangutans and gorillas - and humans and is pursuing the aim of securing a U.N. Declaration of the Rights of Great Apes that would confer certain moral and legal rights on them, including “the right to life, the freedom from arbitrary deprivation of liberty and protection from torture.” “Regardless of who it hurts, we human beings are great apes,” said the president of the Great Ape Project in Spain

Oh gawd, I really hope they do this and succeed at the United Nations. It will be so in character.

Agencia EFE has the rest of the chimp noises here and for Franco the Barcepundit it’s enough to drive him bananas. Be sure to read the monkey business here.

UPDATE: Sharon Hughes has an item about the kind of cultural atmosphere in Europe from which these ape-rights ideas emerge here.

…of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico. It’s a thing of beauty.

The latest poll shows that the right-leaning free-market PAN party candidate’s lead is now E-X-T-E-N-D-I-N-G well ahead of AMLO’s. This is the third straight poll showing this awesome trend ahead of the July 2 presidential election.

Here’s what’s cool about it: Tonight is the first Mexican presidential debate. Calderon can cream PRI dinosaur candidate Roberto Madrazo easily. AMLO, meanwhile, thinking his two-year-long lead was permanent, opted to sit this debate out. Now, the heavy TV exposure for Calderon against Madrazo is likely to extend his lead even further.

Why is this happening? One, Hugo Chavez. He’s become the biggest campaign issue in Mexico, inserting himself in their business repeatedly and making no secret of his preference for AMLO. The big flights of drug dealing airlines out of Venezuela, landing in Mexico, have got to have an impact, too. When 5.5 tons of cocaine were offloaded near Mexico City, it might be significant that the guys greeting the plane were city officials, who ultimately report to AMLO.

I also have to wonder if maybe the PAN party’s fierce stance on immigration - granting immigrants in the U.S. some kind of legalization is resonating with Mexican voters. Nobody’s fought harder than the PAN to stick up for immigrants. Well that’s one reason why I agree with being soft on immigrants here in the states! It kills off populist candidacies, ensuring our border problems don’t get truly horrible! Maybe there are some things Mexicans and gringos can really agree on.

THIS IS AWESOME!!!!!! iiiVIVA MEXICO!!!

The Bloomberg link is here.

Boz at Bloggings by Boz has an interesting additional detail here.

Today Italy remembers the liberation from Nazi-Fascism.

Neveretheless, those on the Left march to remember only the (communist) partisans.

They have completely forgotten that, if it was not for the United States and the Allies, the partisans couldn’t end the work.

It’s to be reminded, however, that most partisans were not communists; many were Christian-Democrats and Liberals, of course staunch anti-communist.

Sadly, the Left is once again refusing to pay tribute to the Allies; to add insult to injury, some radicals almost surely are gonna burn the US and Israeli flags, while waving the Palestinian one, as occurred last year.

Well, exactly the other half of the Italian population, those who didn’t vote for this immature and anti-reformist Left, today will pay homage to those American, British and Jewish soldiers who died for our freedom.

I’ll be posting photos of the ceremony in honor of the fallen soldiers who will take place in the American cemetery in Anzio, province of Rome, as soon as I get them.

Today I want to thank America and all those Italian Jews who fought in the ranks of the Jewish Brigade on the side of the Allies.

I am well aware that I am speaking on behalf of that half of my countrymen who love America.

People power wins democracy back for Nepal!

Just before midnight yesterday, King Gyanendra went on national television and proclaimed to the entire country that he acknowledged the the power of both the political parties and the people, apologized for the death of fourteen protestors at the hands of security forces, and is reinstating immediately the parliament that he dissolved in 2002 before disbanding the institution completely just last year.

This is a major victory for the people of Nepal! They went on a planned national strike exactly 19 days ago. Day by day it grew stronger until everything had shut down. They had surrounded Kathmandu in the hundreds of thousands, blocking the “ring road” highway that circles it, but prevented from marching on the palace by security forces. However, today was supposed to be different. After the King earlier failed to meet their demands, they planned to march in the millions, storm past the security forces, and overrun the palace. If the King hadn’t begun acting like a king soon, he probably would have been killed.

In the year that I have covered Nepal, from the dissolution of parliament until the April Revolution, I have never failed to be impressed. The Orange Revolution may have filled the streets of Kiev for weeks on end, but in Nepal the entire country shut down completely. That they were able to organize so quickly, in such large numbers, in a country much more impoverished than Ukraine, is very impressive. Then again, it wasn’t exactly velvet either.

Parliament will convene on April 28 and begin working out the roadmap that the Seven Party Alliance has worked out. For the first time, all of the major actors in the country agree on at least one thing: the necessity of reworking the constitution so that it is more democratic and includes everyone. Even the Maoists, who agree with the idea of a constituent assembly completely. Now that the King has been subdued, if the Maoists give up their arms in exchange for being brought in to the mainstream, then Nepal will have a pact among the most important political groups that can, in the very least, bring them democracy. Pacting is the most effective ways for democratic transitions to consolidate, as while the political elites may not agree on specific policies, they at least agree that the country should be democratic. That’s what Nepal looks to be shaping up to be.

The only problem is that the Maoists still don’t trust the King and have rejected his offer, calling on people to continue blockading the capital until the demands of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution and the establishment of a republic are met. But it is important to note that one of the two Maoist leaders, Prachanda, said that they should continue protesting until the political parties do it. Given the wide support for this now among the population, this is very likely to happen anyway, as that’s part of the opposition’s roadmap. I very much doubt that the population will heed the Maoists’ call to continue striking, and the huge protest that had been planned will instead be a victory parade. The joyous atmosphere that the April Revolution was missing all along will finally be there.

Bringing the Maoists into the mainstream will be tough, but when the constitution is rewritten, the most important thing is that there are provisions to prevent the siezing of absolute power once again. First of all, the King must not as currently provided by considered the Supreme Commander of the armed forces. The only reason this revolution lasted so long was because of the army’s loyalty to the King and lack of control by civilian forces. The King must also be relegated to, in the very least, a ceremonial role. Once the Maoists see that the political parties do have control and are making a good-faith effort to reach out and build an inclusive nation, they may well yet give up their arms. As I write this, the parties have already declared that they will call for a ceasefire.

But aside from all that… congratulations to the people of Nepal!

Paramendra Bhagat is absolutely overjoyed, and lists what the country needs to do in order to establish democracy.

United! We Blog takes a look at the speech, analyzing what is to come and notes the happiness on the streets as people celebrate their victory into the night.

Check out all the Yahoo! photos here.

Yoeleidys Sigler, daughter of Guido Sigler Amaya, a prominent political prisoner who pledged to never surrender to his jailers’ attempts to ‘re-educate’ him, has called for the immediate and unconditional release of her father. She says that she, her family and the neighbors alike are suffering very much and cannot bear the suffering anymore.

Listen to Yoeleidys’ voice here.

Our good friend Carlos Serpa Maceira, independent journalist working for the Lux Info Press Agency and the “Cuba-Miami Information Bridge”, informs us about the hunger strike of a political prisoner who was detained on 13 July,2005 , when he was participating to a peaceful demonstration in Havana’s Malec????n seaside, to pay homage to the rafters killed by Castro while fleeing Cuba in 1994.

To communicate with Serpa Maceira and receive the news he sends to the opposition websites in the exile, send him an email : serpamaceiraÉyahoo.es

My friend and former political prisoner, Claudia Marquez Linares, has interviewed Angel de Fana of the Movement “Plantados Hasta la Libertad y la Democrac????a de Cuba”.The interview is in Spanish and can be read here.

Contacto Cuba.com hosts a must-read testimony, in English, of the daughter of a Cuban freedom fighter who had fought first against Batista in the ranks of the Castro-led rebels and later against the Castro’s regime itself. The Cuban was a staunch anti-communist and a democrat, member of the glorious 2506 Brigade. Read it here.

Panama’s president has come forth with the long-awaited plans for the expansion of the Panama Canal.

The $5.5 billion expansion would widen the canal so that bigger ships with more cargo and traffic can go through. Right now, a full five percent of all world trade goes through this canal and there can be a four-day waiting period for ships trying to go through (when there are boat-traffic jams). Panama makes about $1.2 billion a year on crossing fees, but to its great credit, its economy does not stop at those boat fees, but multiplies away into vast financial services, banking, and human services, like hospitals. That’s where most of Panama’s economy is.

It’s probably the greatest engineering feat on the face of the earth - as well as one of the oldest. But it hasn’t been improved since 1914 and like all things it needs to improve because ships are improving as world trade expands.

People are scared to widen this canal because they fear the cost of this thing. They are afraid the country will go into debt and higher tolls will chase off traffic. I also suspect some are scared of globalization, given the strong anti-fre-trade movement in this country. The left-leaning, but very democratic president of Panama, Martin Torrijos, assures them this is in their interest. He wants their votes and to show his respect for them, he is initiating a referendum.

Let’s see how Panama’s people decide on what their future role in world trade will be.

The story is here. Notice that the source is a red Chinese newspaper. This underscores the importance this measure is to the Chinese who must use the canal to ship their manufactured goods to U.S and European markets.

Fun facts about the canal here.

Peru’s detested spy chief, Vladimir Montesinos, who committed numerous human rights violations in the 1990s, is a man who belongs in jail. He’s there all right, but his networks of operatives are not.

Instead, the unemployed spies and torturers have found a new sponsorship in the candidacy of Ollanta Humala. That tells us a lot about the kind of regime Humala is likely to institute, given that he intends to rewrite the constitution to consolidate power.

Alek Boyd has the ominous report here.

Yesterday, April 21, 2006, the United Nations Environmental Program gave out awards to ???????the Seven protectors of the Earth.??????? These seven individuals are hailed by the UN as ???????the Champions of the Earth.???????

One of the seven ???????protectors of the Earth??????? and a United Nations ???????Champion of the Earth??????? is Mikhail Gorbachev!

This coming week will be the twentieth anniversary of what is commonly accepted as one of the worst environmental incidents of all mankind????????the Chernobyl disaster. On April 26, 1986, while plant operators were conducting a safety test on Chernobyl’s Unit 4, it overheated and caused a hydrogen explosion.

In the following days large clouds of radiation moved west across Europe and Scandinavia. Technicians in Scandinavia detected high radiation levels, and after a few days they realized that the radiation was coming from the Soviet Union.

The Russian government, then headed by the current United Nations ???????Champion of the Earth??????? Mikhail Gorbachev, categorically denied that there was a problem. Four days after the accident, Gorbachev????????s Soviet Union officially admitted that an accident had occurred at Chernobyl. Scientists, and even the KGB, had been warning the soviet bureaucrats for years about problems at Chernobyl. The KGB had issued a report, “Deficiencies in the Construction of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant,” which documented violations of construction specifications “that could lead to technical failures and accidents.”

To this day no one knows the full extent of the damage to human life (throughout the world) and to the environment caused by the accident. Although the official count of the dead at Chernobyl is 56, the United Nations’ World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the number of Chernobyl workers who died from radiation exposure or committed suicide at 50,000. At least 330,000 people were relocated from the area of Chernobyl subsequent to the accident.

On top of this disaster, the Soviet Union was an environmental disaster, and the countries of the former Soviet Union are still trying to clean up the mess left by the negligent environmental activities of Gorgachev’s Soviet Union.

Maybe I am crazy, but it seems to me that someone who was the leader of an empire that was responsible for damaging the environment of fifteen countries, and would withhold from the world that there was a major accident at a nuclear power plant that was spreading a radioactive cloud around the world, is neither a ???????protector of the Earth??????? nor a ???????Champion of the Earth.???????

There’s less than 3% of the votes to be counted and unless something really unusual happens, Alan Garcia will be the second candidate in the runoff for president of Peru, by a narrow margin. Lourdes Flores is in third place, trailing Garcia by 84,832 votes.

I hate Garcia’s guts.

But not nearly as much as Ollanta Humala’s.

The prime difference between the two men is that Garcia, leftist and irresponsible as he is, is nevertheless a democrat. When his term was up in 1990, and he’d made his big mess of the economy, he nevertheless left office. He didn’t entertain grand dreams of being Dictator For Life, the way Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez did, following his master in Havana, Fidel Castro. He came and when his time was up, he left, so that better people could be elected.

Not so, Humala. Besides being a military tinpot who’s already tried a coup, and having a crazy brother in the hoosegow who advocates armed struggle if his crummy brother is not elected by ballot box, he already has laid out a blueprint for a Chavista revolution. His first step would be to rewrite the constitution … to his advantage. One of those advantages includes being dictator for life.

The guy is no damn good.

Garcia, on the other hand, bad as he is, swears he’s learned his lesson and this time won’t bring 7000% inflation to Peru or the Shining Path guerrillas to the capitol’s gate. He may or may not keep those promises, and it would be a great thing if he did. But even if he didn’t, he promises to leave when he is done making a mess. Is that good enough? It probably will have to be. Because anything is better than Ollanta Humala.

Today, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez announced he was cutting off preferential trade relations with Peru, in a punishment response to Peru’s free trade pact with the U.S. It’s a heavy handed move and I wonder if it won’t offend Peruvians enough so that they rally behind Garcia, who fortunately, and unlike Humala, is no friend of Chavez. It’s hard to say how they will react but if Peruvians are offended by the heavy handed Chavez move, they may well go for Alan Garcia.

Meanwhile, the talk among the electoral circles is that Lourdes Flores may well be ready to throw her support behind Garcia. If so, I applaud her. ANYTHING is better than Humala.

The brilliant writer Mario Vargas Llosa has announced that Garcia and Flores have got to unite now, and mostly for the same reasons I cite. His essay, in Spanish, can be read here.

In addition, one of the Peru commentators at the University of British Columbia site, Max Cameron, was very proud of calling the election correctly and he said that the secret to it was: looking at past polls in earlier election years. It makes sense. He has a fascinating essay about this whole thing here.

Wolfy Lima at Lobo en Peru has more thoughts about what’s next here.

In the struggle to name a new election board that won’t be as discredited for its pro-Hugo Chavez biases as the last one, a supposedly transparent and fair process is being put into place and supposedly neutral observers are being chosen.

This of course is not happening. The candidates are being asked whether they voted or not - a highly loaded question since only 18% of the voters voted in December and the rest of the electorate boycotted the election. If saying they stayed home on election day means they aren’t patriotic (read: Chavista) then the only people who will get on that board are more Chavistas. That won’t do much for voter confidence in itself.

But it gets worse when one realizes that a blacklist, that was supposed to be gone, is still being lovingly maintained. Miguel Octavio, back from a long vacation, has the whole story here.